Saturday, July 31, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Everything about this chart says that a new trend has begun. The six month S&P charts has increasing volume on down days, decreasing volume on up days. A cross of death and a series of lower highs. The stochastics and CCI are both about to give renewed sell signals (market worked off oversold conditions). We held the flash crash low barely on Friday but I suspect op ex had something to do with that. Watch for a close below 1040 to confirm what everybody is wondering: Has a new bear mearket begun? If so, I'd guess it doesn't take as long as my patience to get to that head and shoulders target at 860. Enjoy the beautiful weekend everyone!
The Malaysian Sun Bear:
Disclosure: I own SPY puts, plan to hold them for a while.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Friday, July 09, 2010
After completing a nearly perfect H&S top on the S&P 500 daily and hitting new lows for 2010, the bulls have come out to squeeze the bears. What a surprise! Nope, seen it a million times. Just when the bears get a grip on things the market miraculous rallies to squeeze the bears. I think stock have likely begun a new bear market as evidenced by a number of technical indications. The series of lower highs and lower lows on both the daily and weekly time frames is an obvious one. Then there's the cross of death on the dow and the S&P, note that this has not yet occurred on IWM or QQQQ yet (but it will soon). Further, you can see that the 50 dma and 200 dma on the S&P 500 are now both declining. I could go on and on about how strong the economic argument is for a renewed weakness in stocks, but.. eh, I'll leave that for another day. There were some short term buy signals this week and after the bulls retook 1040 its no surprise that there has been a squeeze on the false breakdown. Once the market falls back below 1040 I think I will be ready to declare a new bear market with certainty and bet the house short. For now I am happily long as I wait to see how far the retards on Wall Street continue this low volume squeeze. I hope you are all enjoying your summer?
Disclosure: I am long IWM August calls.