Saturday Rock Blog: Sympathy For The Devil

Saturday Rock Blog: Over the Hills and Far Away & In My Time of Dying (Led Zeppelin)

Saturday Rock Blog: The Joker

Saturday Rock Bog: Knock on Wood

Disclosure : I am long many assets.

Saturday Rock Blog: Ghosts n' Stuff

Saturday Rock Blog: Let's Stay Together

Saturday Rock Blog: Wheel in the Sky (DIA)

Saturday Rock Blog: Sherry Baby (BBY)

Disclosure: I no longer have a position in BBY.

Friday Rock Blog: Love Shack

Sunday Rock Blog: (The Bears) Couldn't Get it (the Market) Right (in 2013)

Welcome to 2014! At first glance the market has been kinda weak so far this year but in the context of the six month chart above, you can see we've just been consolidating the Santa Claus rally. The market leading small caps have a very bullish looking pattern, as if stocks are about to surge higher. As I've suggested previously, the most plausible way for this 5+ year bull market to end is with serious upwards capitulation. Everyone is talking about a crash (down), how about a crash up? Consider a scenario where stocks go up ~2%/day for a week straight and then surge 5-10% (or more) one single day. This is how I think this QE-fueled bull market will end, not with some little reversal on taper talk like traders are constantly talking about. Does reality justify such price action? Absolutely not. Does reality justify a 40% gain in small caps last year? No way. This is a bubble market and bubbles go far higher for far longer than anyone ever expects. Based on the charts I'm looking at, the uptrend is accelerating, not slowing down. The best gainers will probably be the dumbest, most overvalued stocks (think TWTR or SCTY) that all of the fast money traders are trying to short. So going forward, I'm gonna stay long/bullish on the broad market until we see some crazy upside on record volume. There are good short opportunities though, such as in retail (e.g., SHLD), but the market indexes are heading higher, clearly. Good luck this year! Disclosure: I have no position in IWM.

Saturday Rock Blog: Christmas Tears or Shorting Best Buy (BBY) for the holidays

Disclosure: I am short BBY and I have BBY puts.

VIX UPDATE

VIX Retest of 1240-1199 head fake provided support to reverse back through 4 week highs, breaking out and squeezing shorts after the attempted breakdown at 1199.  Taking this 1463-1199 range, gives an upside expansion target of 1674. Pullbacks within 1330-1290 new support.

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.  AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Yen Continuation

VIX HEADFAKE

 

VIX broke its trend line from the March lows on Friday, falling below 1240 and hitting 1199.  This quickly recovered on Monday as the VIX traded back above this trend line, creating a headfake. Thus far, this head fake has led to a squeeze back to retesting 2 week resistance at 1400.  Pullbacks down to 1240 now offer new support based off this 1199 low and a weekly close above 1340 is bullish. Earlier this week, SPY Implied Volatility was 10.16% vs Historical Volatility of 11.73%, according to a 30day average from IVolatility.com. 

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.  AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Juicy Solar City (SCTY) Reversal

Disclosure: I own SCTY puts.

SP500 / DOW WEEKLY CHARTS

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.  AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Saturday Rock Blog: Something About You

The Twitter Top or How the market tanked to celebrate the $25B Twitter IPO

Happy Birthday TWTR!!

Disclosure: I have no position in TWTR, but I wish I had a million shares short from $48 today, holding for $10.

 

Sunday Rock Blog: Take On Me (a-ha)

Saturday Rock Blog: Everybody Wants to Rule the World (Tears for Fears)