Saturday Rock Blog: Remain in Light ('96)

Disclosure: I am long FSLR

Break this or DIE! (IWM on the verge of collapse)

Disclosure: I own IWM puts.

Saturaday Rock Blog: Call Me Maybe or The Best Swim Team in History

Saturday Rock Blog: Healthy Body

I'll be the first to admit that I've been very wrong on solar stocks this year. When the bottoms fell out on FSLR, SPWR and others they got into a "death spiral" and kept going insanely lower. Now that they are priced for bankruptcy you could probably make some good valuation arguments to go long these stocks. I won't do that though. I just wanted to note how great FSLR's chart is shaping up after it spent the past month consolidating the 40% rally from the all time low at $11.50. I especially like how FSLR closed Friday above its now rising 50 dma near the high of the day. Closing near the high seems like a simple feat to accomplish but shorts and nervous longs have prevented this from happening for months. On days when there is a big rally in FSLR you always see a 2-3%+ tail on the daily candle. We could imagine this whole move as a healthy retracement of the long term downtrend and call it a ABC correction or we could call this a long term bottom. Regardless, using a measured rule approach, you get targets around $20-22 should FSLR break out above $15.50-$16. I see this as a very likely possibility but I don't plan to exit my position at $20 should it get there, I might sell some covered calls though. Of course this all depends on Earnings which FSLR reports Wednesday after the close. QE3 from Bernanke won't hurt either. Disclosure: FSLR is my largest long position by far so I might put on some sort of hedge before Wednesday. I am also long SPWR.

Monday Rock Blog: Lovin' Touchin' Squeezin' Breakin' (DOWN)

Is it just me or dows the market look like it is about to completely melt down? Watch IWM collapse if it can't hold $77.50. Disclosure: I own IWM calls, but will exit them tomorrow

Saturday Rock Blog: Neckbrace

Saturday Rock Blog: I've Seen All Good People

Sunday Rock Blog: Karma Police

The increasingly bearish developments in the Russell 2000 (IWM) were negated by the huge rally we saw Friday taking the small cap index above their 50 dma and the neckline we've all been watching at ~$78.  Even though this was the last day of the first half of 2012, and fund managers certainly had a vested interest in this kind of rally, it does appear to be genuine (like it will stick).  Volume was healthy and bullishness was wild eyed across the board after every major US stock index appeared to hold their (rising) 200 dma.  Its hard to ignore the bullish look of many daily charts including IWM above, but the weekly's still show a long term double top to me.  I'd be surprised to see IWM trade below $78 in the near future, but if it did, I'd get bearish in a hurry.  For now though, the bulls are in control.

Disclosure:  I still have a few IWM puts to get rid of, unfortunately.  

Sunday Rock Blog: Zoot Suit Riot

Saturday Rock Blog: Beautiful Disaster or How Long Term Trends Change (IWM Weekly)

In summary, it looks like the Russell 2000 index entered a new bear market in July-August 2011. The massive "santa clause rally" we had last year now clearly appears as a retracement to the bull market highs. We now have new long term bearish signals and a perfect head n shoulders top to boot. We could see a cross of death (50 dma cross below 200 dma) in weeks. A rally above $78 would bring this thesis into question. The first target is $71, then $60. As a reminder, I think the Russel 2000 small cap index (ETF: IWM) is a leading indicator for the entire US stock market. Disclosure I am short TNA

Saturday Rock Blog: Somebody That I Used To Know

Saturday Rock Blog: On We March (FB)

Saturday Rock Blog: Dark Side of the Moon

Enjoy the eclipse of the sun by the moon tomorrow afternoon!

SP500 61.8%

Overnight the Emini SP500 futures fell into its next level of support following the break of its daily channel earlier in the week as it hit lows of 1320.75, retracing 61.8% of the 1259.75-1419.75 rally at 1320.83. The market has went into short covering off this important support level as buyers have stepped up to defend. This is not only a fib level, but where the market broke out of early February that began the bullish momentum and took the market 100 points up to 1419.75 which was the last level of defense for sellers off the 1441 target. 1320 is a major level to be defended for the year lows to hold. To show strength, buyers should look to close the market above 1335 off these lows to setup a reversal and to offer buyers a low to defend to buy the dip the following day. Resistance comes in at 1345-1363.75 being the range the market failed to hold, this will be the area to work through to get back within the daily channel and attempt to target the next major upside resistance of 1390 off the failed 1411.75 high from the 1st of May. This gives sellers another level to defend as a break through this level gives way to move through the year highs and look to complete the target of 1441. On the downside support is seen at 1325 off these 1320.75 lows. Failure to hold 1320.75 sees next major support at 1315 with major stops below 1296 which matches with the next major fib level of 76.4% at 1297.51. A strong bull will not allow this fib level to be tested, this would leave room to fill the gap that sparked the move higher during the start of the year within 1252.50-1259.75. Filling this gap puts the ball back into the sellers hands as it gives up all the gains of the year for the bulls.

www.chicagostocktrading.com

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT. OPINIONS EXPRESSED. INFORMATION COMPILED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, ACCURACY CANNOT BE GUARANTEED.

Saturday Rock Blog: Put Your Head On My Shoulder (IWM H&S top)

Saturday Rock Blog: This Must be the Place (IWM)

Saturday Rock Blog: Raise Your Weapon

FSLR/Natty

Disclosure: I am long FSLR.

The REAL Problem With Solar (collapsing natural gas prices)

Disclosure: I am long UNG and various solar companies.

Saturday Rock Blog: In Motion