Saturday Rock Blog: Steal Gold Away

Gold looks bullish to me. The important levels are seen in this three year weekly chart, $120, $140, $160, and $180. In other words, right here at $160 looks like a great buy. Target $180 initially, then alot higher. 

Disclosure: I'm Long GLD and GDX

 

Saturday Rock Blog: Any Way You Want It

Disclosure: I am long DGLD (short GLD x3)

LOL: DGLD +26% today as gold tanks

Disclosure: I own PHYS as of today

Saturday Rock Blog: Dance This Mess Around

Disclosure: I'm long PHYS (pretty much the same as GLD)

Saturaday Rock Blog: Call Me Maybe or The Best Swim Team in History

Sunday Rock Blog: Midnight in a Perfect World

There's no denying that this gold chart looks pretty bullish. After a six month correction, GLD has broken out and targets the low $200's (new all time high). This isn't terribly surprising because ANYTHING priced in US dollars has rallied lately and gold was well positioned for a technical move up. This action comes as GLD nearly confirmed a new primary downtrend with the 50 dma coming close to crossing the 200 dma (might still happen). So long as GLD holds above ~$162 the trend is bullish. However, if GLD trades below that level in the next week or two, I'd expect things to unravel extremely fast. Deflation or more inflation?

Saturday Rock Blog: Psycho Killer

This week in idiotic headlines: "Gold Loses Safe-Haven Appeal"

Gold is not so parabolic, deflation?

Saturday Rock Blog: Blinded by the Light

Has Gold Double Topped?

Weekly chart above shows inverted h/s target 1240 completed.

Gold’s inverted h/s formation target to 1240 was completed during the week of May 14 after breaking out in April. Recently we have seen gold retest and reattempt to breach this target area by making a new record high of 1254.5. This new high was made during the Globex session on June 8^th and tested during the pit session with a high of 1253.0. The fact that the break above 1250 occurred during Globex gives the impression that the high was made to run stops thus hitting 1254.5. The market tried to test this high but failed during pit session trading and closed at 1244.7. Since then we have seen gold pull back to the 1223 level, as seen in the daily chart, the uptrend is still intact, and gold is in a strong bullish trend, however gold has set a double top. This double top will remain strong resistance and a profit taking opportunity unless bulls can reclaim and close above 1252.

RISK DISCLOSURE: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Renewed US dollar bullishness

Today I rotated out of euros and gold and back into my Aussie dollar short. The euro bounce I was looking for played out and now I think its time to get back on the US dollar bandwagon. As mentioned in a previous post, I think that the recent decline in the US dollar which began in early 2009 is over. I am looking for a significant rally in the US dollar overt he next 6-12 months. I am still bullish on gold but its been weaker than I anticipated after bouncing off of key $105 support. So I took profits on GLD with the hope of getting back in lower sometime soon.
Disclosure: I am heavily short AUD/USD again.

Buying Gold and Euros by Selling Dollars

I think these charts are pretty self explanatory. With the euro (above) I see an opportunity to profit from a 200 dma bounce after taking profits on my Australian dollar short. I'm targeting the 50 dma and the 200 dma will be my stop.

Gold (below) is something that I have wanted to own for some time now but didn't want to chase a parabola. Mr. market obliged and gave me a huge pullback to support at the last breakout price. I don't think the gold bubble is over yet and am expecting new highs for gold in 2010 (based entirely on the chart). If gold drops further I'll add.

Disclosure: I covered AUD/USD (at a very nice profit) but expect to reshort it in a week or so. I am now long EUR/USD for a bounce. I started buying GLD yesterday. Good luck!

GooooooooooooooooooLD!

Monthly US Dollar & Commodity Charts

http://www.twitter.com/chicagostock

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

Any new radical ideas from Jim Rogers? Nope.

Laughable headlines: Stocks up today because of a "commodity surge"? Or did commodities surge with stocks because the dollar got whacked?

Here's something to think about, gold was up 2.5% today while the S&P was up 1.4%. Priced in terms of gold, the S&P actually dropped 1.1%. It is an illusion to think that you made money today if you own an S&P 500 index tracking fund. You made dollars, but you didn't make any value.

Gold is up, but still has 30% to go

Gold has been getting a lot of press lately for breaking the famed $1,000 mark. The gold ETF GLD (above) has performed slightly less well, but is also breakout out to the upside on long term and short term time scales. The pattern above looks like an inverted head and shoulders but I won't call it that because H&S patterns are reversal patterns. In this case the "H&S" is acting like a continuation pattern, since gold is in in a decade long bull market that recently had a very substantial correction. I guess it looks like a H&S bottom but we can prob expect it to act more like a cup n handle. Whatever you call it, we can be sure of a few things. Gold is bullish and it just had a major major breakout after a lengthy base formation. Using a simple measured rule I get a target of $130 for GLD or about $1,300/oz for the precious physical stuff.

By the way, for those of you who are worried that you aren't really buying gold when you buy the ETF GLD which holds gold futures and apparently some actual gold. Chicagostock and I recently explored the basement of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and we were shocked by what we found in the vault: nothing. So beware, comex may be out of gold! Goldman Sachs must have taken delivery recently!! If anyone asks, you heard this rumor elsewhere. The second picture below is one I took of the S&P futures pit on a slow summer afternoon.

08/03/09 DX, NG, GC

Continuous US Dollar Index Weekly:

Continuous Natural Gas Weekly:

Continuous Gold Weekly:

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.

And she's buying a stairway to heaven... (with gold)

The Euro (redux)

Last weeks strong move by the euro, to new highs is continuing in early trading today. At the time I'm writing this one euro is buying 1.4417 dollars and the high for the day so far is 1.4436. The quote, in terms of dollars purchasing euros is well below the 70 cent figure at 0.6934.

What is unusual so far in todays trading is the lack of a big intra-day move in early European trading. Early morning moves of half or cent or more are common as the European exchanges open for business for the day, and we haven't seen that today.

The continuation of last weeks trading comes on speculation that the Fed will reduce benchmark interest at their Wednesday meeting. News from Europe and Germany in particular indicates that inflation may actually be accelerating, raising expectations that the ECB may be forced to raise rates at the November 8 monetary policy meeting.

In terms of the long-term chart, the euro has broken out of the channel that has been almost two years in the making. This weeks continuation could be considered confirmation of the breakout. In related news, Gold and Light Sweet Crude are trading at long terms highs today, as is the Australian dollar.


(disclosure: I am long the euro with FXE march 08 calls.)