Saturday Rock Blog: Steal Gold Away

Gold looks bullish to me. The important levels are seen in this three year weekly chart, $120, $140, $160, and $180. In other words, right here at $160 looks like a great buy. Target $180 initially, then alot higher. 

Disclosure: I'm Long GLD and GDX

 

Saturday Rock Blog: Any Way You Want It

Disclosure: I am long DGLD (short GLD x3)

LOL: DGLD +26% today as gold tanks

Disclosure: I own PHYS as of today

Saturday Rock Blog: Dance This Mess Around

Disclosure: I'm long PHYS (pretty much the same as GLD)

Sunday Rock Blog: Midnight in a Perfect World

There's no denying that this gold chart looks pretty bullish. After a six month correction, GLD has broken out and targets the low $200's (new all time high). This isn't terribly surprising because ANYTHING priced in US dollars has rallied lately and gold was well positioned for a technical move up. This action comes as GLD nearly confirmed a new primary downtrend with the 50 dma coming close to crossing the 200 dma (might still happen). So long as GLD holds above ~$162 the trend is bullish. However, if GLD trades below that level in the next week or two, I'd expect things to unravel extremely fast. Deflation or more inflation?

Saturday Rock Blog: Psycho Killer

This week in idiotic headlines: "Gold Loses Safe-Haven Appeal"

Gold is not so parabolic, deflation?

Saturday Rock Blog: Blinded by the Light

Renewed US dollar bullishness

Today I rotated out of euros and gold and back into my Aussie dollar short. The euro bounce I was looking for played out and now I think its time to get back on the US dollar bandwagon. As mentioned in a previous post, I think that the recent decline in the US dollar which began in early 2009 is over. I am looking for a significant rally in the US dollar overt he next 6-12 months. I am still bullish on gold but its been weaker than I anticipated after bouncing off of key $105 support. So I took profits on GLD with the hope of getting back in lower sometime soon.
Disclosure: I am heavily short AUD/USD again.

Buying Gold and Euros by Selling Dollars

I think these charts are pretty self explanatory. With the euro (above) I see an opportunity to profit from a 200 dma bounce after taking profits on my Australian dollar short. I'm targeting the 50 dma and the 200 dma will be my stop.

Gold (below) is something that I have wanted to own for some time now but didn't want to chase a parabola. Mr. market obliged and gave me a huge pullback to support at the last breakout price. I don't think the gold bubble is over yet and am expecting new highs for gold in 2010 (based entirely on the chart). If gold drops further I'll add.

Disclosure: I covered AUD/USD (at a very nice profit) but expect to reshort it in a week or so. I am now long EUR/USD for a bounce. I started buying GLD yesterday. Good luck!

Initial gold target was reached but its parabolic

*Note, I'm still looking for $130 but wouldn't buy until after a pullback.

Gold is an outperforming asset right now

GooooooooooooooooooLD!

Gold is up, but still has 30% to go

Gold has been getting a lot of press lately for breaking the famed $1,000 mark. The gold ETF GLD (above) has performed slightly less well, but is also breakout out to the upside on long term and short term time scales. The pattern above looks like an inverted head and shoulders but I won't call it that because H&S patterns are reversal patterns. In this case the "H&S" is acting like a continuation pattern, since gold is in in a decade long bull market that recently had a very substantial correction. I guess it looks like a H&S bottom but we can prob expect it to act more like a cup n handle. Whatever you call it, we can be sure of a few things. Gold is bullish and it just had a major major breakout after a lengthy base formation. Using a simple measured rule I get a target of $130 for GLD or about $1,300/oz for the precious physical stuff.

By the way, for those of you who are worried that you aren't really buying gold when you buy the ETF GLD which holds gold futures and apparently some actual gold. Chicagostock and I recently explored the basement of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and we were shocked by what we found in the vault: nothing. So beware, comex may be out of gold! Goldman Sachs must have taken delivery recently!! If anyone asks, you heard this rumor elsewhere. The second picture below is one I took of the S&P futures pit on a slow summer afternoon.

Commodities have entered a bull market

Yeah, the head and shoulders reversal in DBC technically hasn't completed as it hasn't closed above $22.89, but I'm gonna go ahead and call this. If you look at pretty much any individual commodity besides natural gas (UNG) you'll see a clear uptrend over the past three to six months. Oil, agriculture, gold, etc, are making higher highs on increasing volume. The H&S pattern on DBC targets about $28, but this could take some time to play out. Natural gas is the one area where prices haven't been uptrending but after today's surge it looks to me like UNG has formed a double bottom. Time will tell but I feel comfortable in saying that a new bull market in commodities has begun.

Disclosure: I have a large time and strike spread in UNG calls.

Licking my chops, is it time to short everything?

Tonight I just have a few quick bearish looking charts for you. To be honest there's not a whole lot that looks bullish on longer term time frames right now except maybe gold. So here are a few things I was looking at. First is LTM, which is one of betweenthebars' favorite shorts right now. To me this looks better the closer you could get in it to $11.50:

With LTM I'd turn pretty bullish on it if the rising wedge broke to the upside. That being said, I'd bet it tests the lower end near $7 first. Of course btb expects it to go much lower, it sounds like.

Apple isnt too terribly exciting, being range bound for roughly 6 months. But tomorrow the bears are going to get a big squeeze on the toxic-bank-subsidy/Geithner plan (I suspect and futures confirm). That could very well take AAPL above the recent highs near $103 which would be a technical breakout and could potentially propel AAPL even higher. It seems like a nice short opportunity if it can reach $105-$110 ish:

Picking a stop on that one would be tough so I would rely on a clear intraday reversal and set the stop at the high of the day (hod). If AAPL broke out and returned into the channel, then I'd expect it to test the lower end quick ($85).

CPF is a financial that I found by accident tonight attempting to bring up the COF chart (which is also bearish but not as pretty). Anyways, I like how this stock has consistently found resistance at the falling 50 dma during this decline:

Watch for resistance at $6.25 and on the way down $5.50 should be a key level for CPF. Every indication is that this thing is accelerating downwards in the long term but the options are illiquid and the float is small.

If I were looking for a financial to short, I'd look for one that has had the largest move up in recent months. That one has to be Morgan Stanley which rallied 300% since its multi year low last October:

MS seems like a gift from god anywhere near its 200 dma, currently at $25. It hasn't actually broken down out of it's up channel yet, but the stochastics and CCI are screaming sell. I see a lot of price in between the November low and the current level.

It really seems like everything is a sell these days, check out the Euro (FXE or $XDE):

I'm not ready to jump in this just yet, but if it gets closer to that declining 200 dma... Licking my chops..


Disclosure: I have no positions in these*

*yet

Bear images were from corbis.

Coiled Commodities (DBC)

Commodities as a whole are poised to make a large move soon as the recent range has narrowed substantially. The daily Bollinger Bands, a series of higher lows since December and 50 dma all seem to be converging on $20. It seems to me that a large retracement of the 2008 decline may be in order after support has shown up in the low $19s. Commodities could also break lower but I'd be more scared of a false breakdown than missing the decline. It just seems to me that now would be an appororiate time for the dollar to weaken against tangible assets (commodities) with all the money being printed in Washington. We shall see...

And she's buying a stairway to heaven... (with gold)

Gold continues to make new all time highs...

Inflation, what inflation? Shame on the federal reserve.