Friday, September 11, 2009

Gold is up, but still has 30% to go

Gold has been getting a lot of press lately for breaking the famed $1,000 mark. The gold ETF GLD (above) has performed slightly less well, but is also breakout out to the upside on long term and short term time scales. The pattern above looks like an inverted head and shoulders but I won't call it that because H&S patterns are reversal patterns. In this case the "H&S" is acting like a continuation pattern, since gold is in in a decade long bull market that recently had a very substantial correction. I guess it looks like a H&S bottom but we can prob expect it to act more like a cup n handle. Whatever you call it, we can be sure of a few things. Gold is bullish and it just had a major major breakout after a lengthy base formation. Using a simple measured rule I get a target of $130 for GLD or about $1,300/oz for the precious physical stuff.

By the way, for those of you who are worried that you aren't really buying gold when you buy the ETF GLD which holds gold futures and apparently some actual gold. Chicagostock and I recently explored the basement of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and we were shocked by what we found in the vault: nothing. So beware, comex may be out of gold! Goldman Sachs must have taken delivery recently!! If anyone asks, you heard this rumor elsewhere. The second picture below is one I took of the S&P futures pit on a slow summer afternoon.

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