Monday, July 31, 2006

GRMN in focus

As a followup to last week's post about the weakening of GRMN I would like to focus on the GPS technology company this week for earnings wednesday. Last week I said that I expected the stock to head lower after it closed out the previous week just below it's 50 dma which had been compromised twice recently. Well the stock bounced monday and looked to head higher off of the 50 dma, but check out what happened next, and especially note the action thursday and friday:

Of course it is important to be aware of the context. GRMN announced a new GPS plane navigation system last weekend which justified monday's bounce then we had major rallies in the broader markets albiet on lower volume. Nonetheless GRMN took a beating after trying to lead like it has been. They post earnings on wednesday morning (11am ET) and I see two factors that could be driving the heavy selling going on in GRMN. The first would be a general fear that GRMN may dissapoint even slightly and get punished like other would be leaders RACK and SWIR on friday. The second is genuine smart money selling ahead of a bad report. Either way (or perhaps others) it will be very interesting to watch GRMN next week and see if the technicals correctly predict a plumit wednesday.

Lets take a quick look at a longer term chart to see how far it can fall in the event of the catastophe I see coming in the chart:I see the first stop at 80 but with a really nasty break GRMN could spend some time in the 60's. I will post updates on GRMN's progress this week. Cheers!

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Double top in CME, Pullback in CVX and Cracks forming in GRMN

Getting back from vacation I was not surprised to see many ugly charts. Investors are becoming more aware of a global economic slowdown that doesn't exclude the US coinciding with a panic over the middle east and stocks are being punished. Many stocks are broken, having been heavily sold and now the only ones left to fall substantially are the fund favorites. While one might think a bounce should be here soon and that the markets are "oversold" almost everything I see says sell. I noticed a potential double top in best of breed name CME.
CME closed below its 50 dma with an ugly low of the day close friday. However, support is just below at 440 which is a good short term target. Then after some consolidation I would expect CME to head to 380. Recall it was an earnings dissapointment that led to the first failure at 500. CME posts earnings on Tuesday.

CVX has been outperforming the market on the rise in oil prices and acheived a new high early last week on the recent push. Compare CVX to XOM or the oil service etf OIH and you will see just how strong CVX has been. However, the recent rise has been unchecked and this blue chip is due for a pullback. Fibonacci retracements have worked in the past for CVX so I would target somewhere in the range of 60-61 before the next leg higher.

I especially like CVX longer term because I would expect funds who are not allowed to hold lots of cash to rotate money out of less conservative stocks and into high dividend blue chips and there isn't one better than CVX. You can expect to see more on CVX here in the future.

Another popular stock that has been highled for months in the IBD 100 is GRMN. I do not know much about the business of GPS devices but I know the stock has been weakening lately. There seems to be alot of resistance above 100 and has dipped as low as 80 recently. Now may be a good time to jump in for a quick ride to this area potentially targeting the 60's if 80 can be breached. On Friday GRMN closed just below its 50 dma and I would expect this one to head lower.

I will try and do updates on previous picks in the comming weeks and get back into posting at least weekly. Enjoy!