Saturday, September 29, 2012

Thursday, September 27, 2012

FSLR Symmetric Triangle

Disclosure: I am long FSLR stock and calls

Monday, September 24, 2012

Troubled Transports




Saturday, September 22, 2012

Saturday Rock Blog: Hold On Tight (WFT)


Like most stocks in the market right now, WFT has a really nice (i.e. bullish) looking daily chart. After hanging out in a narrow range ~11.50-13 for four months, the Euorpean oil and gas equipment company broke out on news of QE3. Unfortunately, the break didn't come on strong volume and the stock pulled all the way back to the top of the range. It even slipped below $13 to 12.59 yesterday but surged back above to close at $13.54 on four times the average volume. Needless to say, I'm looking for further upside to perhaps $14.50-15 on this move. If WFT can hold above its 200 dma we could be looking at a much longer term reversal of the downtrend.

Disclosure: I am long WFT.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Narrowing Range in Crude Oil

Crude is looking a little extended in the short term after the past three months of rallying but this weekly chart shows a longer term neutral to slightly bullish formation. Crude has made lower highs and higher lows for about two years now forming a narrowing range currently ~$80-105. With all other equity markets heating up on QE3 I'l like to see crude at least challenge the top of this range, perhaps break out of it after some consolidation. It will be interesting to see if Crude can hold its 50 and 200 dmas, if not, $87 should provide good support. Clearing $115 would make for a beautiful chart, maybe for Christmas.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Random Rock Blog: Unity

Ain't nothing wrong with another unity song....

Bullish Solar ETF Chart (TAN) ~$18 neckline

Disclosure: I am long stock and Oct calls on FSLR, SPWR and JASO.

Saturday, September 08, 2012

Saturday Rock Blog: Mr. Blue Sky ('78)


My recent track record on IWM posts haven't been stellar lately.  I've generally been bearish given the lower highs and action relative to the previously declining 50 dma.  Also, the market leading small caps haven't participated as much in the recent broader market rallies hinting at underlying weakness.  However, over the past few weeks IWM has pushed higher and broken out of a very nice base formed in 2012.  The chart now has a very nice looking cup n handle pattern.  Although the target price doesn't seem very realistic ($105), I think a +$10 move isn't at all out of the question (so ~$92.5) by the end of the year.  We can argue all day about the reasons why the market might make such a strong move up (oh its because the election, no its because of QE3, its gotta be the unlimited scope of the ECB easing), but regardless the chart is screaming "higher!"  I had an IWM call position until Friday when I got nervous and decided to take profits.  My gut tells me there will be a pullback next week ahead of the fed meeting and and even bigger pullback if the fed holds steady again.  With all of the major indexes at 52 week highs now, its clear blue skies above.
Disclosure:  I will rebuy IWM calls next week.

Monday, September 03, 2012