Saturday, August 18, 2018

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Saturday Rock Blog: Game NOT Over


Super IWM breakout, this game is not over. Extremely bullish consolidation/continuation pattern (symmetric triangle) targets ~$174. 
Disclosure: I am long TNA and IWM calls.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Sunday Rock Blog: Fallin' Up

Disclosure: I own ICE calls.

Saturday, February 10, 2018

Saturday Rock Blog: This Bull Market Drives Me Crazy

Its been a while since I've posted, and as you can probably guess.. my bets paid off big time. The market did pretty much what I have been posting about for the past couple of years. Almost every target was met, and I was mostly good about taking profits. The most recent sell off caught me, like most, but I see it as a healthy correction. Honestly, I was pleased by how quickly it happened and now appears to be in the rear view mirror. This looks like a textbook simple ABC correction.
I do think that the best/biggest moves up in the markets are yet to come. Violent corrections like the one we just saw have a tendency to clean up the market (by washing out over-leverged longs, rope in perma bears, VIX sellers, etc) better than slow and steady market corrections. Everything I look for in a market correction is right there in the charts. We pulled back to the 50 dma's, tested, failed it (fine), and then very rapidly pulled back to the 200 dma's. Almost every major index pulled back ~10% after years without a >5% correction (great). This is how I see things playing out with IWM: rapid push to the highs, followed by a pullback to the 50 dma, then rip to new highs.
The IWM indicators are showing more bullish divergences than SPY or QQQ, and I do think IWM's time in the sun is coming. It has under-performed but that should change given the economic fundamentals. The candles look great, the volume and other indicators look bullish. I think the days of +0.5% up are over, and we are entering the crazy town phase of the bull market where stocks go up >1-2% on up days. Buckle up... This party is just getting started, don't miss the best part. Capitation (hardcore melt-up upside) is coming, and it will be surprise everyone to the upside.

Disclosure: I own IWM, SPY, and QQQ calls.
Assuming we do see new highs, my 2018 targets will then be: IWM: $176 (probably underestimated), SPY: $321, QQQ: $190

Sunday, December 03, 2017

Sunday Rock Blog: Last Friday Night in DC

With stocks set to 'melt up' into the end of 2017 in the most epic 'Santa Claus' rally of all time, the market is beautifully bullish charts galore. There's almost no point in posting a chart because they all look like great buys. Its is truly a sight to behold and one of those rare times when unbridled 'uber mega bullishness' is warranted.
Ok I'll say it, we are in a bubble! The problem with bubbles is that they get better and better until they don't, and when they don't its a massacre. So enjoy it while it lasts! Will it last into 2018? Almost certainly. Will it pop in 2018? Maybe. No one knows, but I want to see interest rates alot higher, and the actual effects of fiscal stimulus felt, before I will call a top.

Anyone who wants to call a top here based on charts should simply look at bitcoin and ask themselves where the top was. I do think we are in for a lot more upside here, especially now that congress is finally getting its act together. With the passage of the most significant fiscal stimulus in 30 years, the markets should have support to rip higher into 2018. The bars and houses in DC Republican homes must have been quite the party on Friday night, after the bill finally passed at 2am ET.

Disclosure: I own calls on SPY, IWM, QQQ, and many other stocks.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Saturday Rock Blog: Happy Birthday ICE


ICE went public on Nov. 16th, 2005 at a split-adjusted price of $5.2. With ICE currently in the $66 range, it's rallied almost 1200% in the past twelve years!

WOW! The company has really delivered on growth.

It still looks bullish to me. Disclosure: I own ICE calls.