Sunday, October 02, 2016

Sunday Rock Blog: Once In a While We Enter Raging Bull Market Mode (IWM)

Looks like last leg up in this new bubble/bull market is getting started. Bull markets usually have the biggest gains at the beginning and the end. Remember what it was like in 2008-2010 after the lows? I bet the fed will have to radically raise interest rates before this is over, and clearly we're a ways from that. The fed continues to take the attitude that asset prices are not in bubble territory (yet). We are at least one year out from that, probably more like 2-3 years out. I think the upside could get pretty crazy, more so than the dot com bubble. I've been looking at charts all morning and they all look bullish. Small caps lead, and it looks they'll break out to new all time highs soon ($126+). I'm going to load up on calls. As a side note, if Hillary gets elected Wall street will love it, they'll go bonkers. Santa Claus rally of a generation coming.

"Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)." -from Wikipedia

Full Disclosure: I am long small caps, including IWM via stock and options.

Sunday, October 04, 2015

Saturday, August 08, 2015

Saturday Rock Blog: (The S&P 500 Keeps Lifting) Higher and Higher

The trend is clear: yep, still UP! Recent consolidation in the markets looks like yet another great buying opportunity in this ~7 yr bull market. For those who claim the market has to eventually top, typically, the best gains of a bull market come at the beginning and the end. Besides, secular bull markets don't end with interest rates at 0% and energy hella cheap. The S&P-tracking ETF SPY seems to be targeting about $245. If I'm wrong, SPY will spend a few weeks below its rising 40 week moving average, currently $206.50, and the 10 week average, currently $209 will cross under. The party at the end of the bull market hasn't even begun yet, staying long here. Disclosure: I'm not long SPY, but plenty of other stuff. Love the small caps.