Saturday, November 26, 2011

Saturday Rock Blog: Davyd

So much for posting everyday this week... I had less than time I thought, anyways here's another Pogo "mashup." Its produced from the film AI, which was oriringally a Stanley Kubric concept but got directed and produced by Steven Spielberg later. Its not perfect but a must see for sci fi fans (AI). Hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving! After the worst Thanksgiving week since the 1930's, is it time for a ride in Santa's sleigh?

Sunday, November 20, 2011

CVX at the top of its range, bearish signals

Disclosure: I have no position in CVX but might take a shot with puts if it holds below $100 this week.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Saturday Rock Blog: Mellow Brick Road

I just noticed Pogo has a bunch of new videos I haven't seen. This week I'll keep it mellow for the holiday and post a chart a day with a Pogo video. Happy Thanksgiving!

Thursday, November 17, 2011

FSLR descending triangle coming to apex, big move expected

(click chart for higher resolution)

One great fundamental bull case for First Solar is outlined in this report by morningstar, just to quote a few lines:

"We expect an industry rebound will not occur until mid-2012 at the earliest. Solar demand growth remains promising in the long term, but near-term growth rates are going to be very modest...

First Solar is the only solar company whose shares have a clear near-term catalyst: its pipeline of utility-scale projects in North America. We project this business segment to constitute more than 70% of the firm's revenue and 35%-40% of production output in 2012, while also serving as the overwhelming source of near-term earnings beginning in the third quarter of 2011.

Pricing on First Solar's 2011-13 backlog of utility-scale projects was set before the industry downturn, and none are subject to renegotiation. These projects were priced using First Solar's 2008-09 project installation cost levels, which were 35%-40% higher than they are today. Also adding to the bottom line will be the reduction in costs of capital for the 1,070 megawatts' worth of projects that received Department of Energy loan guarantees, which allow the company to realize higher selling prices. Putting it all together, this book of business isn't just going to provide an earnings buffer, but will in fact mint the company a great deal of money...

The big risk to First Solar's longer-term story is what will happen to the company's profitability and returns when these lucrative projects are completed in 2013. Any new utility-scale deals will be signed at lower prices. Without another large reduction in costs, the company could encounter some major headwinds. But we don't think this risk will be influencing the stock for quite a while, as 2014 is a lifetime away in the solar sector."

To the best of my knowledge, First Solar presents the greatest long term (5-10 yrs) investment opportunity in the market today. Despite this, an obviously bearish descending triangle has formed in the daily chart appearing as a continuation to the long term downtrend. Unfortunately, with the broader market in bear mode, solar will continue to struggle despite soaring energy prices.

Is FSLR trying to fill the 2007 gap to $35?

Disclosure: I am long FSLR stock and calls. I expect to continue buying FSLR for years to come.

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Sunday, October 30, 2011

AAPL year-to-date performance vs popular ETFs

Disclosure: No positions, but maybe soon.

Market retraces to its (declining) 200 dma

Back at the end of July, when the small caps first broke their (then rising) 200 day moving average (dma), I'm sure many hoped that the market would bounce back and rally to new highs. After all, a rising 200 dma should be a solid bastion of support/resistance in a secular trend. Since losing the 200 dma, the market leading small caps (IWM above) have been mostly range bound but ~25% lower than July prices. IWM did pierce the bottom end of the Fall range at the beginning of the epic October rally we just saw. In the final days of October, with the resolution (apparently) of the Greek problem with the default/bailout deal, the small caps broke up above of the Fall range. Will the breakout hold? Can the market retake and hold its ~200 dma? One thing is certain, the IWM 200 dma (and other index ETFs!) is now declining in value and as we approach it, expect resistance. Selling off from here would be characteristic of a bear market. In fact, many indications are the we began a new bear market in July/August. We shall see...

I have been too busy to monitor the market much lately (hence the infrequent posts), but one thing that has really caught my attention is the action in AAPL. Maybe its that the stock keeps pushing an eye popping $420 ($390B market cap) or just morbid curiosity following the unfortunate death of Steve Jobs. How much influence did Mr Jobs have on AAPL's stellar success of the past 7 years (4000% gain in the stock) and will his successors be able to keep up the growth? At any rate, a number of technical indications are looking bearish on the shorter term time scale while the long term uptrend clearly remains in tact. Note the rising 200 dma, which has acted like support. I wouldn't give shorts in AAPL much slack, $410-420 seems like a good line in the sand. Watch AAPL's behavior near its rising 50 day and 200 day moving averages.

Disclosure: I plan to initiate a put position against AAPL and perhaps IWM in the next few days.

Saturday, October 01, 2011

Sunday, September 18, 2011

NFLX 50% retracement

The 50% retracement point (took under 3 months) should be good for a reasonable bounce, especially considering the (capitulation) volume NFLX saw late last week. Out of the next low its tough to say where NFLX is heading, volatility will probably remain elevated for some time.

Saturday Rock Blog: Come Monday

I'll post some charts later today.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Saturday Rock Blog: You Can't See Me

Tupac this morning for no particular reason.

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Double bottom, simple ABC correction or something far worse?

A simple ABC correction targets $106 on SPY or ~1057.5 on the index. If this is the beginning of a new long term trend, as the cross overs in the chart above suggest, then the bottom could be potentially much lower. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernanke play some card up his sleeve and send us spiraling higher out of a double bottom. I am posturing bullish at the moment even though I don't think we've seen capitulation yet (on either side). I tend to think that the bull market isn't over yet and that we have one last big leg up, but honestly, these charts suggest otherwise. I'm leaning more towards a fundamental, longer term, argument that inflation should start creeping back up with rates at zero percent for two more years. So I'm not trying to trade these swings but nibbling when there's blood on the street.

Disclosure: Long IWM, LNKD, FSLR (broken charts, I know)

Saturday Rock Blog: Mojo Boogie

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Sunday Night Rock Blog: Falcon Jab

Strange times call for strange music videos, enjoy...

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

LNKD Cup n' Handle

This cup n' handle looks pretty decent to me with a target that's $50 higher using the measure rule. The potential for LNKD to sqeeze is extremely high due to the small, overshorted float. This could start to fall apart if it got below $95 but above $110 it can soar. There might be a pause at $122.70, the IPO day high, but even with Bulkowski's conservative target, you get ~$135.

CAUTION: LNKD reports quarterly earnings tomorrow (after the close) for the first time since they went public. This report is likely to break the pattern one way or the other.

With the bollinger bands tightening I can't see a small move in the next few days. Most other indicators look bullish to me (RSI, CCI, MACD, stoch). Tomorrow we might hold mostly unchanged (as volume begins to swell) but I'd expect a large gap Friday.

Disclosure: I am long September LNKD calls.

Saturday, July 09, 2011

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Monday, June 06, 2011

VXX hard to short? I'm not all that surprised..

From an awesome new feature on Yahoo Finance called Market Pulse:

Sunday, June 05, 2011

LNKD isn't finished

Its a bit of a stretch to use a chart that only has 11 trading days of history for technical analysis but LNKD looks bullish to me. If we consider the LNKD IPO price ($45) as the bottom of the flag pole then the pattern fits an almost perfect tight pennant and targets ~$160. It may sound counterintuitive, but the fact that LNKD is such an obvious bubble (using any reasonable valuation metric) makes me even more bullish. It must be full of shorts by now and with its tiny float (50M)the upside could be swift. I wouldn't even remotely think about buying this .com for the long haul but I'd bet it rallies big after the broader market rebounds. Sure, we could very well be entering a new bear market on the S&P but we won't go straight down. At some point we will rebound (probably soon) and LNKD will lead the way up. I've seen it dozens of times (and been burned betting against stocks like this), the most ridiculously overpriced stocks go up the fastest and the most (eg CROX, RACK, DECK, BIDU, NFLX, CRM and so on).

Disclosure: I have no position in LNKD
Monday update: Bought a few front month 85$ calls at the open for a trade.

Saturday, June 04, 2011

Friday, May 27, 2011


Disclosure: I picked up a few calls today.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

The Japanese Bear Market

Disclosure: I own June EWJ puts that I plan to roll forward soon.

Saturday Rock Blog: Sneakin Sally Through The Alley

I'll get an EWJ chart up in a few hours, I have some puts.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

AAPL: Continuation Pattern or The Top?

And how about some more Steve Winwood, because, why not?

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Saturday, May 14, 2011

First, the bull market in small caps (IWM)

Saturday Rock Blog: Higher Love

Sorry for the hiatus, I've been distracted by other things over the past few months. I've actually been watching a number of issues in the market, there's a lot going on right now. I'll post a chart a day for the next week or so. Enjoy!

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Sunday, April 10, 2011

ICE Reversal?

ICE has been grabbing more headlines than usual lately after joining with NDAQ to bid for NYX. As you can see in the six month daily below, ICE had been behaving bullish until the bid was announced. Since the end of March ICE's 50 dma has acted like resistance and key indicators have turned bullish. Monday's reaction to the news that NYX has rejected the NDAQ/ICE bid will make or break this chart:

Disclosure: I have no position in ICE.

Saturday, April 09, 2011

Saturday Rock Blog: Baby Bitch

I'll get some charts up this weekend.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Sunday, February 27, 2011

USO vs Oil

We all know that the commodity ETFs tend to vastly underperform the commodities they are supposed to mimic. Wall Street games them as they roll contracts, the fund managers take their fees and not much is left for the ETF investor. UNG is famously the worst of all in this regard but USO is pretty horrid as well. Take a look at US ovewr the past three years:

When an ETF consistently performs so poorly compared with the commodity (see light crude chart below) one wonders why any one bothers to invest in it at all. There were over 150 million shares traded last week. Sure, there are probably tons of shorts in USO who hedge with crude futures but not everyone can be short. The shorts have to borrow from somewhere. This all begs the question, why do these "investment" instruments exist and who would want to own them? Is it all just short term investors who only care about the day to day performance and don't care about weekly under-performance as is clearly evident in these charts?

Disclosure: No position in these.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Saturday Rock Blog: Shine On You Crazy Diamond

Disclosure: I have no position in LULU but it looks pretty bullish.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Saturday, January 01, 2011

Saturday Rock Blog: Meatstick > Auld Lang Syne

Happy 2011 all! I hope you all had as much fun reigning in the new year as I did (I was at this incredible show at Madison Square Gardens, NYC). I'll get back to posting charts soon.