PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.
Showing posts with label Soybeans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Soybeans. Show all posts
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
Lanworth's Final 2008 Spring Crop Report
I was passed on a pdf with this information from a Lanworth representative. Since I'm not sure how to upload a pdf here I'm just going to copy and past the text and plots. As a reminder, Lanworth uses satellite images to estimate crop yields and other useful agriculture information. See my previous posts for more info. Enjoy:
"US Spring Crop Production 2008
Final Report: 16 January 2009
Corn production: 12,216 million bushels
Soybean production: 2,987 million bushels
This is Lanworthʼs final report on US corn and soybean production for the 2008 agricultural year.
It represents Lanworthʼs best estimates of year-end production based on planted acreage, harvested acreage, and modeled crop yields at district and sub-district levels. In its 12 January 2009 Crop Production 2008 Summary report, USDA revised both its corn and soybean production estimates upward by approximately 1%. In doing so, USDA brought its production estimates for both commodities into close agreement with those issued in Lanworth's 21 November 2008 report and, indeed, those issued earlier in the year (Figure 1). To effect its revisions, USDA adjusted acreage and/or yield estimates for most producing states. Because Lanworth accepts USDA acreage estimates for states not mapped by satellite and USDA yield estimates for states not modeled, USDAʼs adjustments do affect Lanworthʼs production estimates, albeit slightly. In what follows we present updated corn and soybean production estimates incorporating USDA revisions in unmapped and unmodeled states. Here Lanworth updates its 2008 US corn production estimate to 12,216 million bushels, a negligible upward revision of roughly 3 million bushels. Lanworthʼs current estimate stands only slightly higher (115 million bushels vs 74,641 thousand).
Methods
To develop production estimates, Lanworth used planted acres mapped by satellite for 13 key states. Harvested acres for these states were determined by applying harvested fractions derived from the most recent USDA Crop Production report. In flood-affected states (IL, IN, IA, MO), Lanworth calculated harvested acres directly by applying 5 year average harvested fractions to planted acres and then subtracting lost acreage mapped using satellite imagery (see previous reports). For the remaining, unmapped states, Lanworth accepted USDAʼs current harvested acres estimates. Lanworth then allocated harvested acres to districts either directly for satellite-mapped states or, for other states, indirectly using each districtʼs historical share of state planted acres.
For each district in 18 key corn and soybean producing states and 7 spring wheat producing states, Lanworth ran a series of deterministic yield models representing a range of soil, weather, and planting conditions. Model results were weighted and combined to produce representative district yields. For minor states, Lanworth used the projected yields published in USDAʼs most recent Crop Production report. Production was then computed for each district and summarized by state.
Lanworthʼs current production estimates are provided in the accompanying spreadsheet. The data will also be published to http://ray.lanworth.com.
(click on image)
Contact: Nick Kouchoukos, (630) 250-1428, nkouchoukos@lanworth.com ©2009 Lanworth, Inc. All Rights Reserved"
I think the key here is in these last two plots. The most obvious thing is that Lanworth has clearly been estimating higher yields than the USDA for most of the year aside from some mid August corn reports. And what has the Corn and Soybean market done during this time? It plunged. Of course the agriculture market is driven by both supply and demand but its safe to say that the underestimation of crop yields by the USDA is bearish because supply is turning out to be bigger than anticipated. The second thing I noticed was how erratic the USDA's #'s were relative to Lanworth's estimates. Clearly Lanworth's method yields a more stable estimate which has got to be good for a number of reasons which are mostly beyond me. It seems to me that the actual crop numbers, the reality, is going to be relatively smooth and stable. How rapidly could the actual yield change? Maybe if there was some major flooding or other rare natural disaster, but on average I would think that yields don't make erratic moves like the USDA numbers. I continue to be very impressed by this technology.
Click here to download the original pdf file. Also, find the latest Lanworth related news here.
"US Spring Crop Production 2008
Final Report: 16 January 2009
Corn production: 12,216 million bushels
Soybean production: 2,987 million bushels
This is Lanworthʼs final report on US corn and soybean production for the 2008 agricultural year.
It represents Lanworthʼs best estimates of year-end production based on planted acreage, harvested acreage, and modeled crop yields at district and sub-district levels. In its 12 January 2009 Crop Production 2008 Summary report, USDA revised both its corn and soybean production estimates upward by approximately 1%. In doing so, USDA brought its production estimates for both commodities into close agreement with those issued in Lanworth's 21 November 2008 report and, indeed, those issued earlier in the year (Figure 1). To effect its revisions, USDA adjusted acreage and/or yield estimates for most producing states. Because Lanworth accepts USDA acreage estimates for states not mapped by satellite and USDA yield estimates for states not modeled, USDAʼs adjustments do affect Lanworthʼs production estimates, albeit slightly. In what follows we present updated corn and soybean production estimates incorporating USDA revisions in unmapped and unmodeled states. Here Lanworth updates its 2008 US corn production estimate to 12,216 million bushels, a negligible upward revision of roughly 3 million bushels. Lanworthʼs current estimate stands only slightly higher (115 million bushels vs 74,641 thousand).Methods
To develop production estimates, Lanworth used planted acres mapped by satellite for 13 key states. Harvested acres for these states were determined by applying harvested fractions derived from the most recent USDA Crop Production report. In flood-affected states (IL, IN, IA, MO), Lanworth calculated harvested acres directly by applying 5 year average harvested fractions to planted acres and then subtracting lost acreage mapped using satellite imagery (see previous reports). For the remaining, unmapped states, Lanworth accepted USDAʼs current harvested acres estimates. Lanworth then allocated harvested acres to districts either directly for satellite-mapped states or, for other states, indirectly using each districtʼs historical share of state planted acres.
For each district in 18 key corn and soybean producing states and 7 spring wheat producing states, Lanworth ran a series of deterministic yield models representing a range of soil, weather, and planting conditions. Model results were weighted and combined to produce representative district yields. For minor states, Lanworth used the projected yields published in USDAʼs most recent Crop Production report. Production was then computed for each district and summarized by state.
Lanworthʼs current production estimates are provided in the accompanying spreadsheet. The data will also be published to http://ray.lanworth.com.
(click on image)I think the key here is in these last two plots. The most obvious thing is that Lanworth has clearly been estimating higher yields than the USDA for most of the year aside from some mid August corn reports. And what has the Corn and Soybean market done during this time? It plunged. Of course the agriculture market is driven by both supply and demand but its safe to say that the underestimation of crop yields by the USDA is bearish because supply is turning out to be bigger than anticipated. The second thing I noticed was how erratic the USDA's #'s were relative to Lanworth's estimates. Clearly Lanworth's method yields a more stable estimate which has got to be good for a number of reasons which are mostly beyond me. It seems to me that the actual crop numbers, the reality, is going to be relatively smooth and stable. How rapidly could the actual yield change? Maybe if there was some major flooding or other rare natural disaster, but on average I would think that yields don't make erratic moves like the USDA numbers. I continue to be very impressed by this technology.
Click here to download the original pdf file. Also, find the latest Lanworth related news here.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
High Tech Agriculture Futures
How would you like to know the earnings numbers for some stock before the market release? Sure, it would be illegal, requiring inside information, but you could definitely make a lot of money if the market was making a poor prediction. I guess that's why analysts get paid so well; they estimate corporate earnings which can be very profitable for their clients if they don't screw it up (as we've noticed they often do). But what if you could really and legally know the numbers?That's exactly what Lanworth does for the US agriculture market. They look down on crops via satellite (from earth orbit) to estimate harvest yields for their clients ahead of the traditional, and frequently revised USDA report. And as we noticed Friday, the USDA report has a substantial effect on commodity prices. After the report Friday morning, Corn opened limit up and closed there. Other agricultural futures made similar moves higher. Their clients are primarily hedge funds, farmers and buyers who want an "alternative analysis to complement the USDA's Crop Production Report." Check out yesterday's release from a representative of Lanworth, which discusses the USDA numbers as compared to their own satellite-based analysis.
If I were a big time grain futures trader I would certainly love to have this info ahead of the market. I would just hope that they are better at predicting the harvest than a Wall Street analyst is at predicting losses at their own banks. Lanworth doesn't typically pre-release (before the USDA) their numbers to anyone but their clients, so it's tough to gauge, but I would guess they are pretty accurate. After all, they are directly looking at what they are estimating, and it sounds like Lanworth has a good handle on the weather. Being able to estimate frost events would be mighty, mighty useful for a corn trader, especially this year as pointed out in yesterday's report. I think this technology is pretty cool.
Friday, September 12, 2008
USDA Corn Yield Revisions Align with Lanworth Estimates
September 12, 2008 - The USDA released the September Crop Production Report numbers today, bringing their view on yields into alignment with Lanworth's current estimates.
The USDA revised their corn yield estimates from last month, into an almost exact correlation with Lanworth's early numbers that were shared with customers 10 days ago. In the September Crop Production Report, the USDA lowered corn from 155 bu/acre to 152.3, bringing their position very close to Lanworth's original Sept. 1 estimate of 152.1.
The total corn production estimates from Lanworth continue to differ slightly from the USDA's due to varying assessments of planted acres and acres lost to flooding.
Though yield and production estimates are still developing in this unusually delayed growing season, Lanworth has had a more conservative view of the corn yield since early August. The company says frost will likely play a role in final estimates next month.
"Due to late planting and cooler than normal temperatures in many areas, frost is a very practical threat to current production expectations," says Dr. Nick Kouchoukos, Lanworth's Director of Information Services.
Lanworth uses daily satellite imagery to detect frosts as they occur and to assess resulting production losses. A detailed analysis at the crop-reporting district level allows Lanworth to indicate the probability of frost occurrence, as well as the extent of possible damage to corn and soybean acres.
About Lanworth Inc.
Lanworth is an information technology company specializing in the application of aerial and satellite remote sensing to natural resource management. Lanworth assists clients in making informed decisions in the forestry, government, agriculture, real estate, electricity, gas, and transportation industries. Lanworth supplies its clients with detailed geographic and resource information on a global scale. For more information, visit www.lanworth.com.
The USDA revised their corn yield estimates from last month, into an almost exact correlation with Lanworth's early numbers that were shared with customers 10 days ago. In the September Crop Production Report, the USDA lowered corn from 155 bu/acre to 152.3, bringing their position very close to Lanworth's original Sept. 1 estimate of 152.1.
The total corn production estimates from Lanworth continue to differ slightly from the USDA's due to varying assessments of planted acres and acres lost to flooding.
Though yield and production estimates are still developing in this unusually delayed growing season, Lanworth has had a more conservative view of the corn yield since early August. The company says frost will likely play a role in final estimates next month.
"Due to late planting and cooler than normal temperatures in many areas, frost is a very practical threat to current production expectations," says Dr. Nick Kouchoukos, Lanworth's Director of Information Services.
Lanworth uses daily satellite imagery to detect frosts as they occur and to assess resulting production losses. A detailed analysis at the crop-reporting district level allows Lanworth to indicate the probability of frost occurrence, as well as the extent of possible damage to corn and soybean acres.
About Lanworth Inc.
Lanworth is an information technology company specializing in the application of aerial and satellite remote sensing to natural resource management. Lanworth assists clients in making informed decisions in the forestry, government, agriculture, real estate, electricity, gas, and transportation industries. Lanworth supplies its clients with detailed geographic and resource information on a global scale. For more information, visit www.lanworth.com.
For media inquiries, please contact:
Lauren Eichmann
E-mail: lauren.eichmann@walkersands.com
Phone: 312-265-3089
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