Saturday, May 27, 2006

The S&P 500 SPDR is bouncing off it's 200 dma

Kudos to Dan for nailing this bottom in the Spider ETF that tracks the S&P 500 last week. Clearly the bounce still has upside momentum and should continue for at least a few more points, notice it closed at the high friday. Since the breakdown out of the rising channel it had been in occured with significant volume it sould be taken as a serious break in the chart. This bounce would then constitute a throwback back up to the breakdown point and resistance around the 50 dma. However, it is possible for the throwback to go as high as the previous high made, forming a double top. But it would encouter significant reistance on the way, and I would not expect it to make it that far. Notice the broadening wedge forming in the on balance volume, things may really start to get ugly when the OBV fails to make a new high and begins to break down. I think the market is shaping up for a perfect shorting opportunity when this bounce runs out of steam in the next few weeks. Right now I am looking for solid compnaies bouncing off their 200 dma for longs (like AAPL) and not so solid companies about to reach their 50 dma, or worse, for shorts (like PLCE). Dan may provide us with futher insight into the SPY next week.

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