If these stocks can move much higher I would suggest going long or cutting short losses. But now might be a good time to enter shorts at least for a swing in GS and NVDA. There is a plethora of potential double tops out there see SPY for example.
My braoder market view still holds, see the long term weekly chart in the S & P 500 tracker above. While there is some room for the overall market to move higher, I suspect not much. The dramtic fall in oil has caught me off guard and so I am very cautious in this market. A safer play would be to short the oil and commodity stocks on a bounce. I do feel that the energy stocks have moved down too quickly and playing a bounce long might be worthwhile. The OIH (oil services index) seems to have found some support at 124 and a throwback to the breakdown point is common. In this case that would take the OIH back up to 130 which is the ideal point to enter shorts. 
I like CVX for a bounce play because there is a gap that needs to be filled and you will have a tough time finding an unfilled gap in CVX. 
Also, my opinion of TIE still stands, if you went short last week above 25 you are in a great position in my opinion. As far as CME, the gap caught me by surpise as I'm sure it did many. While the recent action in the broker/dealer sector (see ICE, BOT, ISE) does have me concerned I plan on holding my CME puts at least a little longer.
I normally don't post on mondays but I feel bad having not spoken more about TIE in this weekend's post. As I suggested it might, TIE broke support today (following it's failed breakout) on strong volume and closed very poorly. I think this is easy money which is hard to come by on an options expiration week. Fortunatly, I already had Sept 25 puts from last week which I quickly took profits on when TIE found support at 25. However, it had broken its 200 dma for the first time in years so i watched it closely all day until it re-tested and broke 25. When this occured I did not hesitate to buy back my puts higher and I may even jump into 22.50's tomorrow depending on how it opens. This sets up TIE for a move to at least 20 most likely much lower. If you think the short juice has been squeezed out of TIE already just take a look at this logrithmic 2 year chart. I don't think so!
Ps. For those who know what I am talking about when I refer to TIE as if it were a space vehicle, tomorrow the original trilogy FINALLY comes out on dvd. Yes, the Solo shoots first, CG free, proper ewok finale version is set to be released tomorrow. You can guess where some of my TIE profits will be going!
Well, the rising wedge in the S&P 500 I spoke of last week did break to the downside on the return of volume as expected. With the return of volume I have seen many previous breakouts return to or below their breakout point (TIE for example) . Other stocks are hovering at support but are not oversold on their relative strength (CME for example). We have what looks like a long term top in all the market averages coupled with a seasonally weak period for the market. Most previously leading stocks are off their highs but can move potentially much lower without falling much from their current levels (by breaking support). In short (no pun intended) the market averages look like houses of cards ready to make a substantial move lower. I believe support levels will be broken in the next two weeks, most likely after the triple witch (op ex) friday. But I wouldn't discount a meltdown next week even though there may be a fair amount of end of quarter support (many funds would like to see their books show the recent gains). I have talked alot about GRMN and CME lately, lets take a step back and look at their weekly 2 year charts (like the SPY chart above):
As you can see in both of these charts there is massive potential downside in these former IBD favorites that have put in a top. I will be looking for opportunities to add to my long term short positions in both of these next week. The ideal entry in CME is 450-460$, for GRMN anywhere up to 45$ is good. Based on their charts I think the time is right to enter both of these for the impending bear market.
While the S&P 500 (above) seems to be tracing out a textbook rising bearish wedge with volume decreasing as the range converges many stocks look to move higher. I share a similar view on the market as market observations. Mainly I will wait for volume but this rally feels like one last squeeze on the shorts and an opportunity to trap longs before the bear market sets in. I'm looking for an obvious double top in the SPY with some captulation at the highs. I don't expect the NASDAQ to make it that far. Some decent looking stocks that I would long while the market tries to follow through in the short term are TIE, CME and CAT.
