In November of 2005, the Intercontinental Stock Exchange went public in one of the hottest IPO's of the year and ICE was born. The initial offering price set by the lead underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley was $18-20. "By mid-morning, ICE shares had risen 63 per cent to Dollars 42.50." The ipo has found a steady stream of buyers since aside from a -45% correction (on mediocre volume) last Spring and the weekly money flow has stayed solidly positive until recently. ICE has had record volume in the last three weeks as it sold off through its 50 dma and previous upward channel. The weekly CCI is possibly about to give a major sell signal (by crossing zero), but the daily chart shows some divergence. If the correction last spring is any guide, expect the stock to get at least one wild swing in to the upside to shake out shorts and also expect the lower boulinger band to be the ultimate and final stop on the move down. My gut here is that ICE will hold support at $125 and bounce back up to its 50 dma or so before another big move lower. In the daily chart below you can see how any break of $125 will spell more doom and gloom for ICE. Long term support levels are only compiled from a year of data but they come in just over $100 and at $82.40 the previous high. Its a beautiful chart even though it looks like a train wreck.
In the end it really depends on the rest of the market which I think is too mixed up right now to forecast. The fed meets this week and we get housing numbers, furthermore, the charts have a look of indecision to them right now. Clearly there is a new downward trend solidly in place but the market may still want to swing around a bit as equities move into a state of equilibrium and continue moving in the path of least resistance. I will post a follow up later in the week, and/or the moment things start to become more clear to me about the near term direction of the market. In the meantime I recommend keeping a close eye on all investments. Be sure to set and honor your stops.