Semi Shorts and a RIMM Breakout

I'm gonna try to make this week's post short and simple. All three of these stocks will trade with the nasdaq to a large extent. In the event of a strong QQQQ (nasdaq), RIMM just broke out of a long term consolidation. The weekly chart below suggests that RIMM is in the early stages of a big move upwards:
By the way, RIMM is 35 in the ibd 100 and investors business daily (ibd) just recommended RIMM as a buy.

The semiconductor stocks have been struggling for months but recently broke out. I think this breakout may fail as the sector has some real fundamental problems, mainly oversupply. VSEA is probably the strongest semiconductor stock right now and number 28 in the ibd 100. However, it recently rolled off a peak to below the midpoint of its bollinger bands (see below) which has spelled doom for the stock in the past (an many other stocks). I would keep a tight stop on the stock, but expect it to hit the first and possibly the second of the two targets seen in the chart below, especially in the case that the QQQQ sells off:

No matter what the nasdaq does WFR looks finished. I am going to try and stay away from the fundamentals as reasons to trade from now on, but lets just say that the polysilicon seller is running into a major oversupply of their product in 2008, not good. I already suggested WFR might be a short, but now that it is working I think it is a great example of what is going on in the the semiconductor sector. WFR appears to have just completed a long term reversal:
WFR is now 74 in the ibd 100, a dramatic fall from the top ten recently.

Disclosure: I own WFR June 55 puts.
Note: You are responsible for your own investment decisions, this is in no way intended to be a recommendation.