Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Will BIDU's run be done in by sellers? Watch $200

Nice six month chart on BIDU huh? I think BIDU (the Chinese version of google) has been one of the strongest stocks on the NASDAQ over the last few months and it sports a narrow up channel. Since early February BIDU has been riding its upper (and rising) Bollinger Band and it has pulled it's 50 dma from $120 to $175 whilst rising 125%. That's a nice move for a ~$5B company. I'm sure option players are loving this one right now with so many strikes crossed recently. I bet some made a killing writing $100 puts this year!!

Anyways, all indicators continue to flash green signals and should the stock sell further it should find support at the bottom end of the channel around $200. BUT, the one thing I'd be worried about if I were long would be the volume. The volume has slowly declined since the double bottom in Nov/Dec 2008. That is, declined until today. After popping up to a new six month high at $236.62 early today on earnings, BIDU reversed course and closed red near the lows on 5M shares volume. That's about double the average volume. The up channel remains in place, of course, but if BIDU loses $200... Lets just say there are a lot of strikes in between $200 and $140, the next expected area of support.

The BIDU May puts today:
I'd also add that the heavy volume today wasn't just in the stock. The front month puts saw nearly the open interest on all the puts down to $190 and all the calls up to almost $300. If you included all the options volume you could effectively consider the "true" volume to be another 30% or so higher. Whats funny, and most of you would expect this i think, but both the puts and calls lost significant value today. The options sellers win as usual!!

The BIDU May calls today:

I have no position but this smells like a top to me.

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