Thursday, May 28, 2009

Commodities have entered a bull market

Yeah, the head and shoulders reversal in DBC technically hasn't completed as it hasn't closed above $22.89, but I'm gonna go ahead and call this. If you look at pretty much any individual commodity besides natural gas (UNG) you'll see a clear uptrend over the past three to six months. Oil, agriculture, gold, etc, are making higher highs on increasing volume. The H&S pattern on DBC targets about $28, but this could take some time to play out. Natural gas is the one area where prices haven't been uptrending but after today's surge it looks to me like UNG has formed a double bottom. Time will tell but I feel comfortable in saying that a new bull market in commodities has begun.

Disclosure: I have a large time and strike spread in UNG calls.

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