Thursday, October 01, 2009

The Hunt for a Red October


Anonymous said...

does this mean your no longer bullish?

pythagoruz said...

lol, looks like I have picked up another anoymous heckler.

"does this mean I'm no longer bullish?"

Its a matter of time frame dude. I have posted a few arguments for a bearish near term stance over the past few weeks. Did you miss those? Longer term, I have said and still believe we are in a cyclical bull market (but perhaps nestled in a secular bear market). Did you miss those posts? Even longer term? Who cares, stocks are a lousy long term investment. I'd be very very suprised if we take out 2007 highs in the next five years. But you gotta listen to the market and adjust as things change. Thats the nature of using technical analysis as a means.

As I've said, and will say again, If the S&P slips below 950 then the cylcical bear market continues and I was wrong about this being a new bull market.

I took profits on most of my bearish positions today at the close (AAPL, FSLR, IWM) but I bet October will be a down month. Sorry you lost money today anonymous but thats nobody's fault but yours.

pythagoruz said...

Ok, maybe I was a little hasty. Its just frustrating that I typically get anonymous comments and lately they've been from hecklers who read too much into a video I posted. I post all sorts of videos, A Pink Floyd clip doesn't mean I think the market is about to crash and a movie trailer doesn't mean I'm wild eyed bearish. Perhaps I read too much into your question, so I'll try to explain why I posted this trailer a little better.

With this clip I'm just saying that October is shaping up to be a red month. Here we are after 7 months of gains, October starts off with a 2-3% decline on day one. Expecting October to be down seems reasonable because seasonally this is a tough time of year (look at what happened the last two Octobers) and after the huge pump last quarter (biggest since '98) I'll bet fund managers dump this quarter.

Then I thought of this movie today and laughed to myself.

tooquiet said...

Crazy Ivan!!!!