Friday, May 28, 2010

QQQQ Head & Shoulders Top Forming

In watching the intraday action it feels as though there has been a major shift in sentiment following the 10% market crash we had a few weeks ago. In many of the daily charts you can see a pretty severe breakdown on that day followed by a series of bounces within continiued selling. The technical damage was severe on that day; for example, the Q's broke their 2010 low from back in February before reversing and many former leaders have since broken even lower. It feels as though the 2008-2010 bull market is ending and a new bear is about to reassert itself. In my view a new bear market has not been confirmed technically. On the Q's above I see a head and shoulders top forming with a neckline at $42 that targets around $33.35. The right shoulder is a bit messy and starts on "glitch day" the way I have it drawn but perhaps we still haven't finished the head yet. I am looking for a close below $42 on a weekly basis for a confirmation of a new bear market in tech stocks and completion of this H&S pattern. As far as the recent bounce/rally of the past few days, I think QQQQ could see at most $47 but it appears to be running out of steam right here ~$46. From here that $42 will be a magnet and a good test to see how badly the bulls want to own stocks.

Disclosure: I don't have a position in QQQQ at this time.

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