Sunday, June 06, 2010

Oil is looking bearish on multiple time frames

Here's a nine month daily:
I have a three year weekly below, if you view the whole move down beginning in 2008 as a simple ABC correction then you can come up with a target of about $20 on the ensuing leg C down for crude oil. For a more realistic, and useful perspective we should use the daily chart above and watch for a break of $70 to set up a target of $54. But it's always important to keep the "big picture" in mind:

Any way you slice it and allowing room for a replacement, crude looks to have topped for this cycle. Somehow the BP spill seems to have initiated a reversal that has really unfolded in recent weeks. This is a little counter intuitive to me because it seems like the spill raises the cost of production or in effect, reduces supply of crude. As supply is reduced shouldn't prices rise? Perhaps its just a coincidence that crude has fallen during the worst environmental disaster in modern history. I try and keep my focus on the charts and not try to guess how the market should react to some headline. Hope you are all enjoying this lovely summer weekend.

Disclosure: I own BP calls, no position in oil.

No comments: