Sunday, December 16, 2012

Sunday Rock Blog: Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairies

Last weekend I posted a long term AAPL chart showing rising support at $530, this trend line broke with volume and follow through last week. The next level of support on the weekly chart comes in around $350-$425, roughly, in my humble opinion. Taking a closer look at the daily chart below, I am seeing a pretty bearish looking intermediate term trend here which does not bode well for the Nasdaq:

I wouldn't say the AAPL bulls are going to definitely get coal for Christmas just yet, if it can retake $530 without going lower then this could start to look like a double bottom. If AAPL gets back above $550 then it brings a test of the falling 50 dma and soon to be falling, higher, 200 dma into play. But the benefit of the doubt goes to the AAPL shorts, and various indicators are setting up new shorts right here right now. My guess is AAPL heads sharply lower.

 Disclosure: I have sold or hedged all of my solar positions and have some broader shorts on now.  I have no position in AAPL but I am short RIMM as of the close Friday.


Anonymous said...

too much fear now. 520 line in the sand. watching break of 500 followed by daily reversal for long into earnings. remember how bullish everyone was pre ipad mini? now everyone bearish.


pythagoruz said...

Yeah, it formed a reversal candle on strong volume today. Then again, it did make a lower low. I like your idea of capitulation below 500 soon, but I think AAPL can do $425. We shall see, market needs to get over AAPL. -h