Friday Rock Blog: Get Lucky

Friday Rock Blog: Jane Says

As you can see from the above, I see the potential for this past week's high to be a major top.  Some aspects of the recent price action look like capitulation but neither the volume nor the severity of the decline have me convinced.  I have come around to thinking that the only way this five year bull market ends is with a capitulation event where price and volume spike, then reverse.  Upward breakouts from rising wedges (see weekly below) usually end in tears, but we still have a few more months till the wedge apex.  If this is capitulation, then it feels more like the beginnings of it rather than the end.  More and more people are talking about the stock market these days, and it seems like the public is getting in now, finally... 1000 points later (150%).  I have longs and shorts but I'm long SPY aggressively long via calls right now.

Disclosure: I own SPY calls

Saturday Rock Blog: Space Oddity

Saturday Rock Blog: Any Way You Want It

Disclosure: I am long DGLD (short GLD x3)

Saturday Symphony Blog: Four Seasons

The S&P breaks 1600!!!

Yen and Dow Seasonal Since 2007

Saturday Rock Blog: Good Enough

Saturday Rock Blog: Sky is the Limit

The Russell 2000 (small caps) broke hard today

In today's lovely daily candlestick, IWM broke through two seemingly important price points and more importantly  its flattening 50 dma.  The small cap ETF did all of this on 100M shares traded, second only to the first trading day of the year (~3x avg vol).  This now brings into focus previous a previous area of support around ~$89, then nothing but air for another -$4.

Disclosure:  I own TWM (inverse IWM)

LOL: DGLD +26% today as gold tanks

Disclosure: I own PHYS as of today

Sunday Rock Blog: Iko Iko and FSLR's +50% week via a massive short squeeze on x7 avg daily volume

Disclosure: I am long FSLR, but hedged with cover calls.

FSLR 1 yr chart (+possible support levels)

Disclosure:  I am long FSLR and short $40-strike June calls against the entire position.  The calls make me nervous, because I think FSLR is in the early stages of a long term uptrend which started almost a year ago.  That being said, the bulls would do well to consolidate their (massive) gains of late, but not to beyond recent levels of resistance (i.e. build support above $30).  So I'd like to see FSLR hang out here or drift lower to these levels ($33.3-35.6) for a few weeks at least (i.e. form a bull flag and wait for MA's to catch up).  Plus, hedging against a broad market decline seems prudent given the circumstances.

Saturday Rock Blog: Jump In The Line

Wednesday Rock Blog: Sundown

Sunday Rock Blog: Satellite (IWM)

As sort of an update to this post, IWM (above) has been push higher consistently for about four months but recently consolidating some of those gains over the past few weeks.  The CCI and stochastics look a lot like they did back in November, right before we broke out and made new all time highs.  The trend is up on all time frames here so you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.  However, its interesting to note that we never tested that $84 support after the gap n run to start the year.  Also, the steeper uptrend that started the year ended in late February, and we have been trying to get back up to it ever since.  I am becoming increasingly skeptical of the recent gains and have increased bearish bets on IWM. 

Disclosure: I own TWM and IWM calls.

The S&P 500 Top? (ChicagoStock)

St. Patrick's Day Rock Blog: Kiss Me!

Pi Day Rock Blog: Dow reaches cup n' handle target at record high for tenth day in a row

Sunday Rock Blog: Inspector Norse

 

Disclosure: I own CMCSA puts, first target is $37.80, stop at $40.35

My internet went down again this weekend, fuck comcast.