Saturday Rock Blog: In The Middle

FSLR Symmetric Triangle

Disclosure: I am long FSLR stock and calls

Troubled Transports

Saturday Rock Blog: Hold On Tight (WFT)

Like most stocks in the market right now, WFT has a really nice (i.e. bullish) looking daily chart. After hanging out in a narrow range ~11.50-13 for four months, the Euorpean oil and gas equipment company broke out on news of QE3. Unfortunately, the break didn't come on strong volume and the stock pulled all the way back to the top of the range. It even slipped below $13 to 12.59 yesterday but surged back above to close at $13.54 on four times the average volume. Needless to say, I'm looking for further upside to perhaps $14.50-15 on this move. If WFT can hold above its 200 dma we could be looking at a much longer term reversal of the downtrend.

Disclosure: I am long WFT.

Narrowing Range in Crude Oil

Crude is looking a little extended in the short term after the past three months of rallying but this weekly chart shows a longer term neutral to slightly bullish formation. Crude has made lower highs and higher lows for about two years now forming a narrowing range currently ~$80-105. With all other equity markets heating up on QE3 I'l like to see crude at least challenge the top of this range, perhaps break out of it after some consolidation. It will be interesting to see if Crude can hold its 50 and 200 dmas, if not, $87 should provide good support. Clearing $115 would make for a beautiful chart, maybe for Christmas.

Saturday Rock Blog: L.I.F.E.G.O.E.S.O.N.

Random Rock Blog: Unity

Ain't nothing wrong with another unity song....

Bullish Solar ETF Chart (TAN) ~$18 neckline

Disclosure: I am long stock and Oct calls on FSLR, SPWR and JASO.

Saturday Rock Blog: Mr. Blue Sky ('78)

My recent track record on IWM posts haven't been stellar lately.  I've generally been bearish given the lower highs and action relative to the previously declining 50 dma.  Also, the market leading small caps haven't participated as much in the recent broader market rallies hinting at underlying weakness.  However, over the past few weeks IWM has pushed higher and broken out of a very nice base formed in 2012.  The chart now has a very nice looking cup n handle pattern.  Although the target price doesn't seem very realistic ($105), I think a +$10 move isn't at all out of the question (so ~$92.5) by the end of the year.  We can argue all day about the reasons why the market might make such a strong move up (oh its because the election, no its because of QE3, its gotta be the unlimited scope of the ECB easing), but regardless the chart is screaming "higher!"  I had an IWM call position until Friday when I got nervous and decided to take profits.  My gut tells me there will be a pullback next week ahead of the fed meeting and and even bigger pullback if the fed holds steady again.  With all of the major indexes at 52 week highs now, its clear blue skies above.

Disclosure:  I will rebuy IWM calls next week.

Labor Day Rock Blog: No Quarter ('73)

Saturday Rock Blog: Remain in Light ('96)

Disclosure: I am long FSLR

Break this or DIE! (IWM on the verge of collapse)

Disclosure: I own IWM puts.

Saturaday Rock Blog: Call Me Maybe or The Best Swim Team in History

Saturday Rock Blog: Healthy Body

I'll be the first to admit that I've been very wrong on solar stocks this year. When the bottoms fell out on FSLR, SPWR and others they got into a "death spiral" and kept going insanely lower. Now that they are priced for bankruptcy you could probably make some good valuation arguments to go long these stocks. I won't do that though. I just wanted to note how great FSLR's chart is shaping up after it spent the past month consolidating the 40% rally from the all time low at $11.50. I especially like how FSLR closed Friday above its now rising 50 dma near the high of the day. Closing near the high seems like a simple feat to accomplish but shorts and nervous longs have prevented this from happening for months. On days when there is a big rally in FSLR you always see a 2-3%+ tail on the daily candle. We could imagine this whole move as a healthy retracement of the long term downtrend and call it a ABC correction or we could call this a long term bottom. Regardless, using a measured rule approach, you get targets around $20-22 should FSLR break out above $15.50-$16. I see this as a very likely possibility but I don't plan to exit my position at $20 should it get there, I might sell some covered calls though. Of course this all depends on Earnings which FSLR reports Wednesday after the close. QE3 from Bernanke won't hurt either. Disclosure: FSLR is my largest long position by far so I might put on some sort of hedge before Wednesday. I am also long SPWR.

Monday Rock Blog: Lovin' Touchin' Squeezin' Breakin' (DOWN)

Is it just me or dows the market look like it is about to completely melt down? Watch IWM collapse if it can't hold $77.50. Disclosure: I own IWM calls, but will exit them tomorrow

Saturday Rock Blog: Neckbrace

Saturday Rock Blog: I've Seen All Good People

Sunday Rock Blog: Karma Police

The increasingly bearish developments in the Russell 2000 (IWM) were negated by the huge rally we saw Friday taking the small cap index above their 50 dma and the neckline we've all been watching at ~$78.  Even though this was the last day of the first half of 2012, and fund managers certainly had a vested interest in this kind of rally, it does appear to be genuine (like it will stick).  Volume was healthy and bullishness was wild eyed across the board after every major US stock index appeared to hold their (rising) 200 dma.  Its hard to ignore the bullish look of many daily charts including IWM above, but the weekly's still show a long term double top to me.  I'd be surprised to see IWM trade below $78 in the near future, but if it did, I'd get bearish in a hurry.  For now though, the bulls are in control.

Disclosure:  I still have a few IWM puts to get rid of, unfortunately.  

Sunday Rock Blog: Zoot Suit Riot

Saturday Rock Blog: Beautiful Disaster or How Long Term Trends Change (IWM Weekly)

In summary, it looks like the Russell 2000 index entered a new bear market in July-August 2011. The massive "santa clause rally" we had last year now clearly appears as a retracement to the bull market highs. We now have new long term bearish signals and a perfect head n shoulders top to boot. We could see a cross of death (50 dma cross below 200 dma) in weeks. A rally above $78 would bring this thesis into question. The first target is $71, then $60. As a reminder, I think the Russel 2000 small cap index (ETF: IWM) is a leading indicator for the entire US stock market. Disclosure I am short TNA