Tuesday, November 14, 2006

EBAY, preparing for lift-off?

As we approach the Christmas shopping season I like to look over the specialties retail plays, internets in particular, for chart positions that I like. AMZN and EBAY are the two that always come to mind. AMZN had it's pop after earnings so I've turned my attention to EBAY.

The short term chart is an ascending triangle that is displaying some obvious intra-day buying. Those upper candle wicks are a sign of buyers that are being sold to, so I went looking for the sellers. I found some of them among the November calls that expire this Friday. This is the maxpain effect at work. As there is no corresponding open interest among the puts, the closing of these calls is acting as an anchor on the stock price.
In my opinion, this ascending triangle couldn't be better formed. It will be broken, and soon, one way or the other. If the call trading takes the stock to $30, the maxpain point for November, the triangle will be broken to the down side. If this solid buying continues, we'll break out to the upside as early as monday, after the options related trading subsides.

With Christmas shopping just around the corner I am sure that EBAY will be doing all they can to provide press releases on their listings and transaction numbers so I'm taking the slightly longer trade. I bought the December $35 calls today at 50 cents.

Update: As of Saturday, November 18 this stock has broken out to the upside of the ascending triangle and held above the previous resistance. Late Friday trading was generally positive and the stock touched $34 in after hours trading on reasonable after hours volume.

I'm excited about the prospects for the stock, come Monday.

1 comment:

pythagoruz said...

Nice call indi, i bought dec 35c's and 37.5c's today on the breakout. It should at least be able to reach 37.5 by jan 1st imo.