Sunday, November 05, 2006

ENR is Out of Juice (luckily its downhill from here)

Energizer was a stock that kept on going and going... but no battery lasts for ever. ENR got into one of those grooves every long craves, a parabolic price increase. After moving out of a less steep uptrend at the end of July on yet another earnings beat ENR acclerated upwards. The stock attempted to top a few times but the dow's strength gave it's sails wind and ENR squeezed higher.
ENR remained overbought from the begining of September until last week when it topped just over $80 then reported a horrible quarter in which they saw profit fall 25% over last year, while revenue increased only 5%. For the year they showed a decline of 7% profit, in otherwords they are not exactly experiencing the robust growth (30% in the month up to earnings) that the stock price had been suggesting. Furthermore, ENR made an appearance in the upper IBD 100 for three weeks but came off this weekend and Morgan Stanley initiated with a sell rating last week before earnings. As mentioned a few weeks ago, I have been watching ENR and waiting for the trend to end before entering shorts (puts in my case). Well the time has come, my first target is weak support at $70 then there is some very strong suport on a rising trendline that had been resistance that currently lies around $65. Then beyond that the 200 dma should be very strong support currently at just under $60. This is one of the best looking shorts I have seen in a while with a close just below it's 50 dma on friday with heavy volume, ENR should be getting sold all week long. Here's a weekly 2.5 year chart to give you a feel for how ENR has behaved in the past, it also suggests $65 is a good target.
In addition I still like the energy sector and am holding some HAL calls. Many energy stocks have great charts and look ready to breakout like XTO or already have like CVX. However there are some quality names that have yet to recover that are looking very attractive like ADM and LNG. Also, keep an eye on the gold and mining stocks, they seem to have begun a new uptrend, I still like GG.

Disclosure: I have HAL calls and ENR puts. Email me if you want to know which contracts.

No comments: