Monday, September 17, 2007

Self Similarity in SIRF


I love it when I see a pattern like this in a chart. Check out the CCI back in Feb and March on SIRF which has been in a steady downtrend all year long. The pattern looks very similar to the one formed over the last two months. If the pattern unfolds in the same way SIRF could fall by 1/4 in the next few months and easily break recent lows.

SIRF's 50 dma has acted like resistance the whole way down from $34 and may have just stopped this swing at $20. The next level of resistance would be near $22 where puts would be very attractive to me. If SIRF broke that red line connecting the highs I would bail, but otherwise anywhere in here looks safe.

Back in early April when the previous pattern completed, SIRF hovered below the 50 dma for a few weeks but never moved above. It then gapped down on earnings and has been below its 200 dma ever since.

Note, technically this is not self similarity because the size magnitudes of the patterns are the same here. In a true self similar stock pattern the 5 min time scale might look the same as the daily time scale. I think the phrase might still apply here somewhat though.

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