CVX Deja Vu

I've been bullish on CVX for a while and it isn't surprising that this blue chip has been outperforming all other dow components with the dramatic rise in energy prices. Nothing new here in that respect, but tonight I noticed something pretty interesting in the long term chart. Things are shaping up quite a bit like the second half of 2006. After being range bound ($50-$60) for about a year , CVX broke out, pulled back and staged a massive rally from just under $60 to ultimately over $90 within a year. The initial push reached the measured rule target by the end of 2006 ($60 +$10 = $70) so I'd like to think the rule will work again as a good target by year end. Again, over the past year CVX was range bound ($75-$95) then recently broke out and has been pulling back since. Using the measured rule you get a target of $115 for the next push ($95 + $20) but I wouldn't be surprised to see it rally higher in the first half of 2009 after reaching $115 this year followed by a pullback to roughly $100. There are other similarities, like the 50 dma dip below the 200 dma that rarely occurs (see orange circles) and the 200 dma has been rising continuously over the past three years.

There is no question about the bullish nature of CVX long term but things are actually looking really good for the short term too. At worst I could see a pullback down to the 200 dma (like what occurred after the 2006 breakout) which would mean the lower $90's. If you really expect things to play out exactly like 2006 then this pullback should get deeper (down to the lower n$90's) and longer (another month or so) before CVX heads to $115 but I wouldn't count on it. It might or might not be worth noting that the Smith Barney analysts have a $116 target based on fundamentals alone, neat how fundamentals and technicals match up all the time huh?