Friday, November 21, 2008

Ten Years of Work Lost in One Year (S&P 500)

Buy and hold strategies are a sucker's game. Clearly.
A few things to point out. Notice how the eleven year range broke to the downside today. There should have been support at the 2002 lows but the S&P sliced right through them. Noting how the S&P slightly broke this range to the upside last October (2007), there is still a decent chance that this break will reverse and hold the 2002 lows having only slightly cracked them. But the fact is they broke today on huge volume and all indicators point straight down. There is nothing but air down to the '94 lows at 450. This appears to be the beginning of a new phase lower in the bear market for the S&P 500 but the dow and small caps have not yet broken their 2002 lows. Its really incredible how quickly stocks have fallen. Any buy and hold investor in the S&P 500 in the last ten years is at a loss right now, and interestingly, so are any Goldman Sachs investors.

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