Friday, November 21, 2008

The Ultimate Fibonacci Retracement

With the market breaking to new lows many are wondering how far this POS market can fall. A good guess would have been support levels from the supposed 2002-2007 bull market (although we can't really call that a bull market anymore now can we), well those all broke pretty easily. The next obvious level of support would be the 2002 bear market lows, those are breaking right now. Where else can we look for support?

I was thinking about replacement levels today and I began to wonder what a complete Fibonacci retracement would look like. That is, a fibonacci retracement of the complete move up from zero. This would represent the biggest possible pullback suggested by Fibonacci analysis. In a way this idea seems very appealing because the current economic and market failures are unprecdented in the history of mankind. Maybe its time for the first *real* pullback in the long term bull market that stocks are supposedly in. So what I'm going to refer to henceforth as the ultimate fibonacci retracement is a 61.8% pullback from the all time highs. Those levels are:

The Dow Jones: 5,423.67
S&P 500: 602.06
Russel 2000: 327.18

Note that this is irrelevant for the Nasdaq which is already well below the ultimate fib reftrace level from the dot come bubble.

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