Sunday, March 22, 2009

Licking my chops, is it time to short everything?

Tonight I just have a few quick bearish looking charts for you. To be honest there's not a whole lot that looks bullish on longer term time frames right now except maybe gold. So here are a few things I was looking at. First is LTM, which is one of betweenthebars' favorite shorts right now. To me this looks better the closer you could get in it to $11.50:

With LTM I'd turn pretty bullish on it if the rising wedge broke to the upside. That being said, I'd bet it tests the lower end near $7 first. Of course btb expects it to go much lower, it sounds like.

Apple isnt too terribly exciting, being range bound for roughly 6 months. But tomorrow the bears are going to get a big squeeze on the toxic-bank-subsidy/Geithner plan (I suspect and futures confirm). That could very well take AAPL above the recent highs near $103 which would be a technical breakout and could potentially propel AAPL even higher. It seems like a nice short opportunity if it can reach $105-$110 ish:

Picking a stop on that one would be tough so I would rely on a clear intraday reversal and set the stop at the high of the day (hod). If AAPL broke out and returned into the channel, then I'd expect it to test the lower end quick ($85).

CPF is a financial that I found by accident tonight attempting to bring up the COF chart (which is also bearish but not as pretty). Anyways, I like how this stock has consistently found resistance at the falling 50 dma during this decline:

Watch for resistance at $6.25 and on the way down $5.50 should be a key level for CPF. Every indication is that this thing is accelerating downwards in the long term but the options are illiquid and the float is small.

If I were looking for a financial to short, I'd look for one that has had the largest move up in recent months. That one has to be Morgan Stanley which rallied 300% since its multi year low last October:

MS seems like a gift from god anywhere near its 200 dma, currently at $25. It hasn't actually broken down out of it's up channel yet, but the stochastics and CCI are screaming sell. I see a lot of price in between the November low and the current level.

It really seems like everything is a sell these days, check out the Euro (FXE or $XDE):

I'm not ready to jump in this just yet, but if it gets closer to that declining 200 dma... Licking my chops..


Disclosure: I have no positions in these*

*yet

Bear images were from corbis.

3 comments:

George "Winace" Swanson said...

Hey, droppin in to say hi!

Haven't seen ya in a while, hope all is good!

Winace

pythagoruz said...

Hey Winace, good to hear form you. Hope the market is treating you well these days! -py

pythagoruz said...

I think the time is right to get aggressively short and that's what I have done. The SPX is 815 for the record.

I'm still expecting the blue scenario after having broke through 800 SPX:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KxN90thvaNw/ScHbSXP-ydI/AAAAAAAACII/r2snt9z9vPI/s1600-h/SPX+031909.png