Thursday, March 12, 2009

Scaling back into shorts here up to $800 on $SPX

Closing above that Nov low was huge for the S&P, I would have expected that level to be heavy resistance. If the market can hold this level early tomorrow, then a quick 50 point pop up to a brick wall at $800. I've started scaling in today positions and I would add higher (near 800) unless the long term trend line in blue is broken. There I'd look for an exit. I am concerned about the VIX divergence over the past six months but I like how cheap puts have become. However, the VIX is starting to look like it could drop a lot more if it doesn't bounce from here. So I'm closely watching the VIX for reasons to stop on SPY. Click on the charts for more detail.


Disclosure: I own SPY and IWM puts.

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