Wednesday, June 03, 2009


I've got the Russell 2000 ETF IWM above but all major indexes have broken their series of higher highs with the recent gains. On the IWM I see a massive inverted H&S that targets something like 35% higher. Now that prices are above the 200 dma, this 200 day moving average may start to flatten out and even start rising. Once that happens the stock market will by most measures be in a long term uptrend. Bear market over. However, Volume has been extremely light this entire year, especially so recently. Ultra narrow Bolllinger Bands have precluded every major drop for over a year now. So while the markets are looking techinically very bullish I would beware the false breakout. But we'll see, the benfit of the doubt goes to the bulls here. I'll be trying longs with a stop around $52, then get agressively short if IWM loses $51.7.

No comments: