Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Keeping It Simple, Honoring My Stops

Hey folks, well its been a rough past two days for me and many who don't buy into this big breakout through 1000. We are all getting sick of the unending media headlines about how the recession is over when its plain as day that its not. With increasing job losses, accelerating earnings deterioration, a collapsing US dollar and a deterioirating still-overvalued housing market we know that the bounce in leading indicators is just a zag. Afterall, thats how volitile leading indicators usually work, they zig and they zag, rarely do markets and economies move in a monotonic fashion. So yeah, yeah, keep pumping it feds, its your only hope. Really, Obama, Geithner, Bernanke, its your only hope if you want to keep your jobs.

Anyways, yeah, I'm frustrated because I got stopped out on all but one of my recently entered bearish positions over the past two days even though I know I had gotten good long term prices. As frustrating as that is, I have to be practical when I look at the bubble before me. "The makret can remain irrational far longer than I can remain solvent." In stupid, ridiculous times like these it pays to keep things simple: S&P broke out, moving averages are rising, volume is rising, measured rule targets about 4% higher. If it rolls over and dies I'll be back on this market like a fly on .... But for now, I'll just sit back and expect the ovbious: That we plow higher but could crash at any second.

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