Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The other side of the coin

Obviously I've been tracking the Eur/USD relationship for a long time, and at this time I'm long the Euro with FXE March calls. I posted earlier this month that 1.42 has become resistance, but that isn't quite true.

What I've discovered is the other side of the coin, the USD side. I tend to think of this exchange rate in euros because that's what I have in my pocket. For my one euro coin, I can buy $1.42 American. Many others think of this exchange from the other side.

An American with a dollar bill in his pocket would get 70 euro cents from me. And that's where the resistance is. It's not 1.42 or 1.43 American to the Euro. Resistance is the 70 cents round number that many American traders are seeing daily on their screens. Many can't believe that their dollar would only buy 70 euro cents, so they are buying when trading gets to this important level.

I believe that it is only a matter of time until this psychological barrier is broken. We should see a pretty good move at that point.

Possible triggers for the event? The ECB is meeting tomorrow to decide on interest rates in Euro-land. The Fed meets next week to deal with their interest rates.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ahhh - here you are.

Good commentary. Wish I didn't agree with you. My daughter works in U.S. - lives in Munchen. The continuation of this trend leaves her an unhappy camper.

Wilful

indigo-alien said...

Sure. I and a small group of others post all of our market related items here.

My personal life and stuff I leave on http://indigo-alien.blogspot.com/

pythagoruz said...

The yen is looking attractive here too. (FXY)

And the Canadian Dollar is on fire! (FXC)