Showing posts with label SubPrime Lending. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SubPrime Lending. Show all posts

Friday, October 17, 2008

Going out out on top, the Lahde letter

Check out this letter from a California hedge fund manager to his investors today. Andrew Lahde is calling it quits after returning 870% to investors last year betting on the sub-prime collapse. He talks about his disenchantment with the industry, the idiocy of Wall Street, a new world order and even the legalization of marijuana. I'd sure like to meet this guy,

"Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.


Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life — where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management — with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government.

Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

From Portfolio: Who Got Screwed in the Wall St. Bailout?
Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country?

Ah, the female. The evil female plant — marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde"

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Monday, September 22, 2008

The second leg of the 2008-20XX Bear Market may be over or Argument for a Rally


Here's a quick update on how I see the markets today. We appear to have concluded the second leg down of the bear market that I feel began in the first week of this year. As you can see above, the dow seems to have chosen roughly 1000 poiont increments as pivot points over the past few years. The most important prices have been 13,700, 12,700, 11,700 and more recently 10,700. The dow has been rallying 1000 points then it drops 2000 points, rally 1k, then drop another 2k. We now seem to be at the end of a 2000 point drop in the cycle (12,700-10,700) and I think theres a decent chance the dow sees 11,700 before the end of 2008. Curiously we have a presidential election in a few months and a generally bullish season for stocks, will the campaigning and holiday distractions be good or bad for the stock market?

On the same 3 yr weekly time frame you can see that VIX spikes mach up well with market bottoms. While there is a possibility that the VIX is entering a new range (over 30) like it did back in July of last year (moved up into 20-30), it seems like the VIX doesn't like to spend much time above 30. Note that the VIX still lies over 30 (it should drop soon (bullish)):


Now looking at a shorter term time frame on the S&P, you can see how the second leg of this bear market began from a bounce off the 200 dma. I've added the fibs for refference, a 62% retrace of the move seems likely. That would take us back up to around 1325 where that 200 dma should be. To further strengthen the argument, the volume was extremely light on today's pullback. All the bulls need is a follow through day now. That would involve a day of above average and increasing volume where we take out last weeks's highs. After that I'd expect a decelerating rally for a month or so until the next leg begins. And just for refference, the most recent leg (#2) took the S&P down 21.4%. So there may be some amazing short opportunities in a few months. For now though, I'm going to be patient and try out some longs.


On the short selling ban, I think the shorts deserve every penny they made. Peter Schiff had this pretty well figured out a very long time ago and I bet he's made a fortune:

Now check out the q&a session from at the end of this Banking conference:

Imagine that Schiff sat down at a table with both of those two dopes and they agreed on a bet. That bet involved Peter profiting from mortgage declines while the bulls would profit otherwise. These bets were made on grande scales and the shorts were RIGHT. They deserve every penny, the bulls were drunk. Here's the rest of that talk by Schiff two years ago by the way.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Saturday Rock Blog: For Whom the Bell Tolls (Fannie & Freddie Bailout)



Links:

Gov't May Soon Take Over Fannie, Freddie - Washington Times
Gov't Takes Control - Reuters
Washington's Fannie & Freddie Plan: Why Now? - Forbes
Game Plan: Time for a Rate Cut? - Cramer
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Are Taken Over by U.S. Treasury to Avoid Collapse - Bloomberg
S&P slashes Fannie, Freddie preferred stock to junk -Reuters
The Details & Comments - Calculated Risk

My take on why this is happening now and not months ago, the strength in the dollar makes it possible. This action will no doubt end the rally in the dollar and we'll just have to see how commodities react to this news next week. While the feds talk a strong dollar they secretly love a weak one because it makes American goods and services more competitive. So this inflationary action (a bailout) is likely to put pressure on the dollar. Take a look at the US Dollar index, talk about a bear market rally, wow:

Thursday, August 14, 2008

ROTFL



Anyone recognize that guy? I posted briefly about this "top bank analyst" back in July of last year after hearing about his hedge fund "Second Curve Capital" that had been heavily invested in the most toxic of subprime lenders at the very top. As the financials topped and tanked this dude remained very bullish and invested in the likes of NEW (bankrupt), FMB (crushed), LEND (gone), CCRT (new multi year lows today) and others. I thought that CCRT looked like a great short at $34 especially considering "CompuCredit was one of Second Curve's largest holdings at the end of 2006." Guess I figured they'd need to dump it in order to raise capital following bankruptcies in their other holdings. CCRT dropped like a rock and now sits around $5.

Anyways, back on Feb. 27th of 2007 he said: "Given the level of investor panic surrounding the subprime borrower lately, I'm feeling very greedy regarding subprime lenders these days, and am especially greedy over subprime-mortgage lenders. This is one of those times in investing, I believe, when it will pay to be very, very aggressive." He thought it would pay to be aggressively buying sub-prime lenders a year ago!! And now he is calling the bottomagain? ROTFL

Friday, July 11, 2008

Regulators Shut Down IndyMac (IMB)

Late today the office of thrift supervision shut down IndyMac, it was the second largest financial institution in US History to close down. I guess Paul J. Miller Jr. will now have to stop following IMB since it no longer exists.

"IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures. ...

The Office of Thrift Supervision said it transferred IndyMac's operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation because it did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands.

IndyMac customers with funds in the bank were limited to taking out money via automated teller machines over the weekend, debit card transactions or checks, regulators said.

"This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.

IndyMac had $32.01 billion in assets as of March 31.

The banking regulator said it closed IndyMac after customers began a run on the lender following the June 26 release of a letter by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., urging several bank regulatory agencies that they take steps to prevent IndyMac's collapse.

In the 11 days that followed the letter's release, depositors took out more than $1.3 billion, regulators said.

Some 10,000 depositors had funds in excess of the insured limit, for a total of $1 billion in potentially uninsured funds, the FDIC said.

In the letter to shareholders, IndyMac Chairman and Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said the drastic measures were made in conjunction with banking regulators to improve the company's financial footing and "meet our mutual goal of keeping Indymac safe and sound through this crisis period."

The plan was supposed to generate roughly $5 billion to $10 billion per year of new loans backed by government-sponsored mortgage companies, Perry said at the time.

But the run on its deposits ultimately short-circuited the strategy, prompting regulators action Friday. " -Source

Hmmmm, I wonder if that dickhead "analyst" Paul J. Miller Jr. had anything to do with the run on the bank this week. If I had money with a bank who's stock just had a price target of ZERO set on it, I think I would definitely try and get all of my money out asap. Is it just a coincidence that the bank collapse happened to coincide with the $0 price target? Who knows, that article seems to blame a letter by the honorable senator from New York. Whatever the case, all the talk of the banks certain demise seems to have become a rapidly self fulfilling prophecy.

In conclusion of the IMB matter, way to go Paul J. Miller Jr.!!! Your brilliant price target was met in less than one week! In honor of you really nailing this thing down I give you the slow clap. I couldn't find a picture of you so I will just imagine that you look identical to George Clooney, what a pimp.

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

"Analyst Sets $0 Target (IMB)" or Why Technical Analysis Is The Only Way


Is there anyone else that thinks this is a wee bit, oh I don't know, totally fucked up? How does an analyst get off setting a target price for a stock at $0, not .1, not .001, a big fat ZERO. He's making a mockery of his own profession, who would do that? This analyst isn't some joe shmoe internet blogger that thinks hes an analyst either, here's the deal:

"Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Paul J. Miller Jr. cut his price target on the Pasadena, Calif., company to $0 from $1. He rates the company "Underperform." -source

Why not just say, ok this company is in trouble and we have a policy of (fill in the blank) so we no longer cover it. He could save a little face and say he only follows companies with share values above $2 or re-iterate his "underperform" as he discontinues the attention. Isn't it below his company and his dignity to not talk about a company which he says does not have "any value left for common shareholders!" And then theres the issue of how this move will impact the company in such a weak state, the stock did drop 38% today.

I think I have this jerkoff figured out. Is this guy short the stock? No, that would be blatantly illegal. Are his buddies short the stock?, well probably, but that should also be illegal so I'm sure they are smart about it (of course this is pure speculation). I think this guy is trying to give the impression that he is on top of it, like he figured it out. What do you think?, here was his last downgrade on November 7th, 2007:

That doesn't seem so bad until you look at the chart. IMB had already fallen 78% from its peak in a little over a year prior. This guy was clearly way off by expecting the stock to "market perform" which is another way of saying "hold" the stock. He essentially said hold the stock for the first 78% of the decline (from $45) and here he is at the bottom, after the stock is below $1, saying oh, uhhh, I guess its gonna go to zero now. Is he retarded?


So whats my point, this seems like a rant so far. Well firstly, the analysts get it wrong sometimes, really wrong. Maybe this guy's analysis of the fundamentals was on the money, but that doesn't really matter to the investor. All that matters is the return, so the share price and possibly a dividend. My grande lesson in this story is the power of technical analysis. Regardless of what the crunching the numbers might tell you about the value of a company, the only thing you should care about is the return from this investment. Looking at that chart it was pretty easy to tell, a very long time ago, that the company was no longer a good investment. In fact, you could even tell that it would likely go under.

It just so happens that the first time I posted about IMB was about a year ago, and I was bearish based on the chart on the long term time frame. I said that IMB had "more downside potential than the other mortgage stocks and the chart is begging to be shorted," four months before Paul J. Miller Jr. downgraded the stock from his neutral. Here was the chart I posted:


Both the 50 and 200 dma's were declining and the stock bounced off the 200 dma like a racquetball off my head. The thing was going down and going down fast so why would you listen to what the fundamental analysis or some wall street goofball (analyst) might be saying? Technical (chart) analysis is the only way to consistently make big money in the equity markets. Sure, there were some smart people who figured it out well before this dope, after all the stock had already fallen a great deal when he said it would underperform. Some of the "analysts" (now I'm being more vague in my use of the word) got it right and some very public ones got it wrong. All of the chart readers got it right because its been clear that IMB has been in a death spiral for a long time. To wrap it up, trust the charts not the analysts.

Disclosure: I have no position in IMB now but I made a pile of money shorting it in 2007.

Monday, April 07, 2008

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Hedge Funds, TMA and Margin Calls

If you think you are having a tough time in the market these days, you aren't the only one...

"Hedge funds saw their worst month performance in about five years in January, generating a composite loss of 2.46%. It's the group's worst month since July 2002, when funds saw a loss of 2.86%, according to Chicago-based industry data group Hedge Fund Research...

Santa Fe, N.M.-based lender Thornburg Mortgage(TMA) also has been the subject of mounting margin calls that could be putting it and other financial firms at the precipice. Thornburg saw its stock plummet more than 60% to well below its 52-week low, after saying that it faced new calls from lenders requiring it to post some $270 million in capital on top of the $300 million it already disclosed it had to post last week.

Thornburg's and Peloton's pain are the sorts of narratives that Wall Street fears could play out at other organizations and hedge fund shops as banks and brokers rein in lending amid plummeting prices.

Hedge funds faced a woeful November, when HFR's data showed that the firms posted a composite loss of 2.18%. In the new year, uncertainty lingered and new worries about bond insurers and other arcane aspects of the market continued to unsettle investors. " -source

Speaking of TMA, that was a stock that I talked about a while back in our chat room as a possible bankruptcy candidate. Well that stock really ate it bad over the past week as they have been forced to sell equities to meet margin calls. Then news today in the after hours sent the stock another 40% lower. The story goes something like this:

"The company said late Wednesday that its failure to meet a $28 million margin call from JPMorgan Chase(JPM) has triggered a series of defaults on various lending agreements.

The company's obligations under those agreements are "material," Thornburg said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

About $320 million was lent to Thornburg by JPMorgan, which notified Thornburg that it planned to exercise its rights under the loan agreement due to the default, which resulted in cross-defaults across other loan pacts.

The announcement comes just two days after the mortgage lender announced a cash infusion involving about $1 billion of prime hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage loans. Thornburg has been burned by nearly $600 million in margin calls over the past month, following the slide in the mortgage-backed securities market. " -source

Now don't get me wrong here, I am bearish on the financial sector among other things and I own BAC and MDC puts (wish I held my FNM puts but oh well). But this decline (see above) is too much, too fast for a stock that is certainly heavily shorted. Furthermore, TMA was able to hold up for so long because they are the best in the industry. They typically lend to only higher income customers and had been turning a profit and raising their mile high dividend even as NFI, NEW, etc went belly up. So there is likely some value there and I would be surprised if they go bankrupt all of a sudden because of a $28M margin call.

I think this stock will rocket at some point tomorrow and see massive gains over the next two weeks. The options are too expensive to buy with implied volatility over 400%, yes I said over 400%, so I will be writing naked $2.50 March puts and buying stock (its as cheap as an option anyways). The nice thing about writing naked $2.50 puts is that you can't loose more than $2.50 minus the cost of the option, which is going to be about 1$ tomorrow morning. And thats only if it goes to zero in the next two weeks. Furthermore, those options will decay faster than Radium-216 and I'd bet you see at least 50% gains from the first half hour till the close tomorrow. This one of those plays where I will put as much cash into it because these types of opportunities don't come along too long. I wonder how high that implied volatility will get by tomorrow morning, should be fun. One word of caution, the P&F chart actually has a price objective of $0.0 for the stock.

They say that when theres blood in the streets its time to buy, but I would prefer to adopt a slightly different motto: When theres blood in the streets, write naked puts. (tm) And you can quote me on that.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Subprime Cartoon

I got these from a longer cartoon called "Subprime Primer" that my Dad emailed me. I'm not sure who the original artist is but this cracked me up. Its always good to have a sense of humor about this stuff.
















If you are wondering how this song relates, check out the lyrics here.

As funny as that is, there are some serious problems with the global financial system as a result of those Wall Street assholes. I saw this article this morning: German State Owned Banks on the Verge of Collapse

Monday, January 14, 2008

All Short Here

In our daily chat sessions I sometimes often give Pythagoruz the gears about his bearish tendencies. As a matter of fact a couple of times recently I have actually traded directly against him, although with a different time-frame in mind. In my opinion this is all a part of how the markets work. It keeps our chat lively and no disrespect is ever intended. The truth is, we work quite well together.

Now having said that, I'm having fun reading his most recent post on Mixed Indicators. That post makes the writer in me cringe, because it lacks focus. That lack of focus makes the trader in me cringe, because there is no evident trade in that post. I must add my 2 euro-cents worth.

Today was a strong day for the Dow, and IBM led the way. That warms my heart, because it goes back to a conversation that Pythagoruz and I have had a couple of times, concerning the value of the dollar and export earnings. At one time he was concerned that the falling value of the dollar would hurt corporate earnings, and therefore stock valuations (silly bear...).

Companies that can export their products often see dramatic bottom line profits on the fall of their home currency. My example to Pythagoruz was KO, but IBM as a hardware and software and servicing company also clearly fits the example. They proved it today, and they carried the Dow today.

Tomorrow will be another day, and I suspect it will be a very different day. For starters, Citigroup will announce their earnings tomorrow, before the bell. The rumors are all over the place with that company, and nobody really knows what the bottom line is going to be. But it's well known that Citigroup is overly exposed to the SubPrime Lending problem and if I were a new CEO, such as they now have, I would be tempted to write off everything I could, so that nothing could come back to haunt me. This is the so-called "kitchen sink quarter" for the Citigroup.

Throw it all out, including the kitchen sink!

In this case, the kitchen sink will probably be the dividend. Bank stocks trade in direct comparison to their dividend rates because if the dividend is low, investors will deposit (with insurance guarantees) their capital instead. Most American banks these days are in need of capital, so cutting dividends will conserve capital and perversely, attract deposits.

So where's the trade? Today I bought a small position of C Jan $30 puts, symbol CMF. But I also bought a few DIA Jan $126 puts, symbol DAWMV because I think that C will lead the Dow down tomorrow, just as IBM led the Dow higher today.

I also have a few out-of-the-money January IWM puts, just in case that index happens to lead the way. It often does lately, as somebody in chat pointed out. In other words, I'm all short here....

So, who's the silly bear now?

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

And now the lawsuits start

You knew this was only a matter of time...

Merrill hit with shareholder lawsuit over subprime

I'm sure this won't be the only one.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The other side of the coin

Obviously I've been tracking the Eur/USD relationship for a long time, and at this time I'm long the Euro with FXE March calls. I posted earlier this month that 1.42 has become resistance, but that isn't quite true.

What I've discovered is the other side of the coin, the USD side. I tend to think of this exchange rate in euros because that's what I have in my pocket. For my one euro coin, I can buy $1.42 American. Many others think of this exchange from the other side.

An American with a dollar bill in his pocket would get 70 euro cents from me. And that's where the resistance is. It's not 1.42 or 1.43 American to the Euro. Resistance is the 70 cents round number that many American traders are seeing daily on their screens. Many can't believe that their dollar would only buy 70 euro cents, so they are buying when trading gets to this important level.

I believe that it is only a matter of time until this psychological barrier is broken. We should see a pretty good move at that point.

Possible triggers for the event? The ECB is meeting tomorrow to decide on interest rates in Euro-land. The Fed meets next week to deal with their interest rates.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

EURUSD at 1.42 has become a resistance point

EURUSD at 1.42 has become a resistance point on the charts. Whenever the dollar has gotten to this point lately, buyers have stepped in. I certainly did. I bought a small number of US dollars in order to buy a leveraged options position against the dollar. Here is my thinking on the issues.

Interest rates here in Europe will have to rise in order to combat inflation.

Europe's September Inflation Rate Rises Above ECB's 2% Ceiling

Energy costs in particular have spiked here in Germany. Eon and RWE, two of the biggest gas and electricity distributors have just announced price increases of 8.8% and 9.9% respectively. Don't even get me started about the price of gas for the car. (EU1.399/liter, approx. 4 liters to the gallon, 1.42 euros to the dollar. You can do the math.)

The members of the European Central Bank have been preparing the way for a rate increase in regular comments to the press, "ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated that economic growth in the eurozone remained robust and that inflation was subject to upside risks."

And from ECB board member Axel Weber, "...the bank may need to raise interest rates to a level that restricts economic growth in order to keep price increases under control." The Wall Street Journal sums it all up nicely, in one article. Interest rates have been held steady for now, but don't expect that to continue. The next meeting of the ECB will be on the 25th of this month.


While in the US there is a completely different situation going on. The problem of the subprime mortgages isn't going to go away any time soon. Over just the next 3 months there is something like 150 Billion dollars worth of adjustable rate mortgages to be reset to current interest rates. There is a superb chart floating around the internet apparently from Credit Suisse, who've had their own problems the with subprime market.

Foreclosure rates are already at twice the 2006 rate, and by the looks of that Credit Suisse graphic this tidal wave is only just starting. Mortgage rate resets will continue well into 2008. US interest rates will have to come down in order to protect both the borrowers and the lenders. It's only a matter of time.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may be saying that he "has no interest in bailing out lenders or property speculators", but he may not have any choice. In fact, a certain level of bailout may be exactly what he's planning, in co-ordination with several of the largest banks in America.

The idea floating around is to build an 80 Billion dollar fund to be used to purchase the credit worthy mortgages, but the problem is not the credit worthy mortgages. Besides the problematic subprime mortgages total more than 80 Billion dollars worth.

What we have here is in fact a risk to the capital base of several large banks, should they have to sell off risky mortgages at fire sale prices. I guess it would be a good idea to have cash on hand, in order to cherry pick the portfolio when the selling really gets going. Apparently Hank Paulson thinks so too.

Let the Crash begin! (or the Fed can lower interest rates, save the financial system, and devalue the dollar).


A devalued dollar will have plenty of side-effects, all over the world. Exporting nations (Germany and the rest of the EU) will be badly affected, as will those who depend on US tourists. Those nations who peg their currency to the dollar (China, Saudi, and other oil producing nations) will have to do some hard thinking too.

With a devalued dollar, European economic expansion will have to come from lower government debt, and corporate cost controls and careful investment. New markets will have to be found for exports because the USA cannot be "the customer to the world" any longer. It won't be easy.

The USA has already overspent and those countries who's currencies are pegged to the dollar will either have to give up that peg, or be willing to import US-related inflation to their own markets.

Some of those countries are already moving away from their currency peg, The Chinese have held steady so far, but even the Chinese know that they cannot afford hyperinflation. They need to be able to buy resources that they don't already own, and they will need a balanced, tradeable currency to buy what they need. So far, they've been buying those resources with US dollars, earned from trade with the USA.

With the dollar in decline, how long do you think they will maintain their own currency peg, when the dollars they own are buying less and less product every day? I'm not expecting that soon, by the way. Just sooner, or later.

In the mean time all the world will continue to play the biggest game of "pass the buck" that has ever been seen. It is a game that is attracting fewer and fewer players every day, as the value of the dollar drips slowly away.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Country Fried Financial T-Shirts


Its a funny graphic to post on a blog but who in their right mind would go around wearing the t-shirt? I can understand people getting excited about the money they made shorting that thing at $40 but sporting that shirt is just poor taste. And I don't think the "I watched the US mortgage market implode and all I got was this stinking t-shirt" argument works here. Plus I'd be at least a liitle worried about getting knocked out by some guy who recently got foreclosed on by Countrywide, its not as funny to those folks.

Its funny how Angelo Mozilo actually looks as fried (tan) in real life as he does in that image, heck I'd be pretty tan if I was making as much money as he is. You know on second thought it really isn't all that funny.

Monday, October 08, 2007

The container is still leaking....

You hardly have to blog these things anymore. Just get up in the morning, scan the headlines, pick one, post it, and wait for the meltdown. You know it's coming.

JPM and BAC to write down $3 billion in loans

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

DSL Long Term Chart

A few months ago DSL broke down out of a two year symmetric triangle. It dropped 42% on increasing volume to find a low at 43.55 on record volume. Since then, a mild euphoria has swept over share holders of the savings and loan company as it climbed 45% to touch the bottom side of the triangle at 63.17. If this 45% rule continues and the stock completes something of an ABC correction, then it could see 36.64.

Of course that might be alot to expect out of any ordinary stock, but then again...

Acording to yahoo, DSL "originates and invests in loans, such as residential real estate mortgage loans, investment securities, and mortgage-backed securities; and originates and sells loans to investors in the secondary markets." Oh, you know, that sector of our economy which has completely fallen apart this year as the housing market tumbled. And while wall street likes to huddle around and sing kumbuya to their god, Ben Bernanke, the fed's desperate rate cut to save the markets isn't going to reverse the popping housing bubble. Just wait until earnings start coming out for these mortgage companies. Did no one listen to what Citibank said earlier this week? Good grief!

Dunno, it looks like a golden short to me so I bought some 60 puts.

Monday, October 01, 2007

The container is still leaking

It was a couple of months ago now that Hank Paulson, Secretary of the US Treasury made that famous quote telling us that the subprime problem was "largely contained", or something to that effect. I blogged it on 8/3, right here on StockGeometry, and while the I article I linked to at the time has gone dead, I've found the exact quote again on an MSNBC.com page. Specifically, he said;

"...that the market impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage fallout is largely contained and that the global economy is as strong as it has been in decades."

I bring this up today because of new reports from Switzerland where banks are now coming clean about their exposure to the problem, and the losses they're experiencing. On a combined basis UBS and Credit Suisse are going to be writing down close to 5 Billion dollars worth of assets. For UBS this will be the first quarterly loss in 9 years.

But this doesn't affect real people, right? The problem is contained? Tell that to my mother-in-law, who has about 25 thousand euros invested in a Credit Suisse bond fund. That's about 1 years worth of retirement income for her, and she's madder than a wet hen right now because she can't get even an account manager on the phone. Those guys were probably cleaning out their desks last Friday and while sympathy may be difficult, those are real people too.

The container is still leaking.