Monday, March 10, 2008
I've blogged about failed moves here in the past and how they often lead to fast moves. When a leading stock breaks out to new highs momentum investors pile in as this is usually a successful strategy. But all trends eventually end and when that momentum turns the initial drop can be big. After a late stage breakout (or breakdown) fails to follow through new investors panic easily and long term investors decide that maybe they should lock in profits and you get a waterfall decline.
MOS appears to be rolling over with the other agricultural stocks and the commodities themselves, just look at DBA. MOS is a stock that has had a tremendous run over the last few years and could potentially fall a long, long ways. Take a look at this two year weekly chart and ask yourself if $85 is a reasonable level to drop to. This fertilizer stock is up from $20 in early 2007 to over $100 today, those are some nice profits for someone. Over the past three months (chart above) $85 has acted like support so thats going to be my initial target, but should this thing really break I could see MOS heading back down to the $50-$60 level. Watch for volume to increase as this thing rolls over (or rebounds to new highs). I'd put a stop in at the previous breakout price of $110.20. Good luck.
Disclosure: I own MOS puts.