Friday, March 14, 2008

A Most Totally Excellent Chart!

One of the common themes here has been the exchange rates on the US Dollar, and the course of the FXE exchange traded fund, in particular. For those who don't know, FXE mirrors the EURUSD exchange rate. Buying one share of FXE is the equivalent to holding 100 Euros in a bank account, and yes you get interest on that deposit too.

For the retail trader it is a remarkable tool for hedging the US Dollar, even while you earn interest on your money. As a speculative trade it can be most impressive because to be honest, I haven't seen anything this consistent in a long, long time.

This is a weekly chart, going back two years...


As you can see, there has been a big buy signal given every time the PSAR reverses under the quote. This isn't how the PSAR was envisioned to be used but in this case it is working. The chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows and volume is on the upswing too.

Is this a screaming buy? Nope. Wait for your entries.

In addition, with this little item we have to be aware of the risk for political or even central bank intervention to chop the Euro back a bit. The business section in every newspaper here in Germany describes local businesses and how their profit expectations for the year are being cut. Last years exports from this country went out at an average of 1.37 Euros to the Dollar. This year we started at 1.47 Euros to the Dollar, and the Euro has only gone forward from there. Something is going to have to give, and the politicians are hearing the message even if the German central bankers seem to be more concerned about price stability.

But it is still a Most Totally Excellent Chart! And it is usually the kind of thing I like to buy.

2 comments:

wilful said...

Why didn't you tell us this was going to happen - 2 years ago?

;-)

W.

SpearDriver said...

You should follow the links. I've been posting here about this topic since Sept, of last year.

Even that would have been a pretty damn good profit, don't you think?