Sunday, March 30, 2008

A Retro Dow Heads Back to the 90's

Yesterday I posted a stunning chart of the Dow Jones Industrial average in the 90's. The benchmark index more than quadrupled before it ended the decade near the highs around 11,600. Today I was looking at a more recent chart of the index when I noticed something somewhat disturbing, the dow is back at that late 90's level.

A few weeks ago I posted a dow chart which suggested that the tide was turning for the bulls. The dow broke it's 50 dma and we all know about how hard our loving federal government has been trying to save wall street, so a rally seemed appropriate. Unfortunately for those who own stocks, the index ran into a declining trend (in red) line bounced off a horizontal area of resistance we've been watching (in blue). For now, the dow remains in a long term down trend but is range bound in the intermediate term. The volume has been weak lately as the market sold off but notice how the last big leg down (begining in Dec.) also started on low volume. If this decline continues I would definately be looking for the volume to increase.

My money is on a retest of the recent lows around the 11,700 level and I wouldn't be surprised to see new multi year lows in April. Does anyone else find it disturbing that the market has made no forward progress in the past eight years? It truly has been a lost decade for stocks and music.

1 comment:

tooquiet said...

Hey Pyth, whats up the the videos gone? Forgot to pay the bills?

Cheers,
TooQuiet.