Friday, May 30, 2008

Summer Trades 2008

A year ago I did a post titled "summer trades" with the idea of finding some simple trades that require little attention. Like last year, I'll be heading out on vacation next week and I won't be able to monitor positions carefully or do much posting. So here are a ideas for tha summertime.

Last year my favorite trade was JASO long, after buying it myself I suggested it at $8 (split adjusted) shortly after the IPO. The chart developed nicely over the past year and is now in a well established long term uptrend (see weekly chart below). JASO went to $27 and now after a long period of consolidation the weekly looks ready to make the next big leg higher. I think you can be patient on this one looking for buying opportunities under $20. Both the 50 and 200 dma's are rising and should both fail $18 is big support.


IBKR is another one I have liked for a while, it appears to be more urgently breaking out of a nice cup n' handle formation. The rules on this one are simple, buy a break of $33, place a stop at about $31 and target $45.


On the short side, HD looks alot like JASO upside down. After a period of consolidation HD could be ready to resume the long term trend lower. What isn't there to like about this chart with downward sloping moving averages, a CCI crossover and a recent bounce off the 200 dma. Its formed a pennant so I'd wait for a break of $26 before trying to bet against it.


Disclosure: I currently do not own any of these.

2 comments:

SpearDriver said...

You might also like to re-visit FSLR, based on news from Germany that the planned cuts for solar power construction have been shelved. Instead of the 30% figure that was being tossed around, they're now talking about cuts of 8%.

Basically, industry lobbyists and eastern state level politicians ganged up on the federal level politicians. The eastern states need the jobs.

The game isn't over though. Consumer Taxpayers groups are complaining bitterly about this one.

Sorry for the German language link. I haven't found this one in the English language press yet.

pythagoruz said...

Yeah, its out in english too, see my previous comment. The German issue is just a small, albeit more urgent, reason to be bearish on FSLR. I think the stock will trade well below 100$ and could even become a penny stock eventually based on their choice of photovoltaic materials and valuation.

The chart now looks like crap too, maybe I'll get around to posting a FSLR chart before I leave.