Sunday, October 12, 2008

Bullish Setups for Knife Jugglers

Where to start? This market is full of amazing buying opportunities. Tonight I'm going to throw a few long ideas out there in stocks that seem to have stabilized and a few more that might get a dead cat bounce. Obviously, its going to be very hard for any stock to rally if the market continues to collapse next week but I think we have reached a point where buying stocks is extremely low risk. There is no reason to think that the bear market is over but there are alot of reasons to expect the market to bounce after the Dow had its worst weekly loss ever.

This weekend everyone is talking about AAPL which had a 9% gain Friday and barely had a loss for the week despite the broader market getting crushed. I see AAPL finding support at $87.5 and not having resistance till $115. I would note however, that AAPL is in a severe downtrend (see the cross of death) and there is no reason to expect anything more than a bounce based on this chart. I'm targeting $115 and keep a tight stop at $87.

The reward to risk ratio on that trade is not very high and you might be looking to hold AAPL for longer than the week or so it should take it to hit $115. A decent looking longer term pair trade is to short three QQQQ's for each AAPL that you go long. The AAPL/QQQQ ratio has found long term support at 2.7 and is showing positive divergence on the CCI. This chart really emphasizes the relative strength in AAPL lately:


Two others that I ran into this weekend were ICE and IBKR. These are both companies that I have liked for a while and the stocks seem to be finding some serious support. I had been tageting $65 on ICE since June and buyers have sure stepped in at that level. It looks good for a rally back up to that breakdown area at $115:


IBKR looks good up $26 but might find resistance at the declining trendline shown in red. Part of IBKR's business is in options market making and you have to think they are making a killing right now in that area. This is one I would want to buy and hold.


Other stocks that I won't bother posting charts for but have been crushed and might get a big dead cat bounce are CHK, CVX, NVDA, JWN, GM, JASO & SPWRA.

Disclosure: I own AAPL calls

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well....

If the dog wants a bone, here is one, one I got thrown to me on
Friday, which I chewed and then chewed a little more this morning.... AHR .... I hope it comes down under $3 again so I can double down. Check it out and look at the charts back to 2000. Should go up another 30%, but could be I am wrong. Buenos Suerte!

pythagoruz said...

Thanks, I'll check it out. I assume its the 50% dividend that you are most interested in?

Along those lines, I am hearing good things about PWE, which a 25% dividend. More on Canuk oil trusts here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/081014/1482_id.html?.v=2

pythagoruz said...

And who are you callin a dog!?

Anonymous said...

If the leash fits, wear it....

Most of us have been tied to our monitors lately, yes?

I sure have been.