"US Spring Crop Production 2008
Final Report: 16 January 2009
Corn production: 12,216 million bushels
Soybean production: 2,987 million bushels
This is Lanworthʼs final report on US corn and soybean production for the 2008 agricultural year.
It represents Lanworthʼs best estimates of year-end production based on planted acreage, harvested acreage, and modeled crop yields at district and sub-district levels. In its 12 January 2009 Crop Production 2008 Summary report, USDA revised both its corn and soybean production estimates upward by approximately 1%. In doing so, USDA brought its production estimates for both commodities into close agreement with those issued in Lanworth's 21 November 2008 report and, indeed, those issued earlier in the year (Figure 1). To effect its revisions, USDA adjusted acreage and/or yield estimates for most producing states. Because Lanworth accepts USDA acreage estimates for states not mapped by satellite and USDA yield estimates for states not modeled, USDAʼs adjustments do affect Lanworthʼs production estimates, albeit slightly. In what follows we present updated corn and soybean production estimates incorporating USDA revisions in unmapped and unmodeled states. Here Lanworth updates its 2008 US corn production estimate to 12,216 million bushels, a negligible upward revision of roughly 3 million bushels. Lanworthʼs current estimate stands only slightly higher (115 million bushels vs 74,641 thousand).Methods
To develop production estimates, Lanworth used planted acres mapped by satellite for 13 key states. Harvested acres for these states were determined by applying harvested fractions derived from the most recent USDA Crop Production report. In flood-affected states (IL, IN, IA, MO), Lanworth calculated harvested acres directly by applying 5 year average harvested fractions to planted acres and then subtracting lost acreage mapped using satellite imagery (see previous reports). For the remaining, unmapped states, Lanworth accepted USDAʼs current harvested acres estimates. Lanworth then allocated harvested acres to districts either directly for satellite-mapped states or, for other states, indirectly using each districtʼs historical share of state planted acres.
For each district in 18 key corn and soybean producing states and 7 spring wheat producing states, Lanworth ran a series of deterministic yield models representing a range of soil, weather, and planting conditions. Model results were weighted and combined to produce representative district yields. For minor states, Lanworth used the projected yields published in USDAʼs most recent Crop Production report. Production was then computed for each district and summarized by state.
Lanworthʼs current production estimates are provided in the accompanying spreadsheet. The data will also be published to http://ray.lanworth.com.
(click on image)I think the key here is in these last two plots. The most obvious thing is that Lanworth has clearly been estimating higher yields than the USDA for most of the year aside from some mid August corn reports. And what has the Corn and Soybean market done during this time? It plunged. Of course the agriculture market is driven by both supply and demand but its safe to say that the underestimation of crop yields by the USDA is bearish because supply is turning out to be bigger than anticipated. The second thing I noticed was how erratic the USDA's #'s were relative to Lanworth's estimates. Clearly Lanworth's method yields a more stable estimate which has got to be good for a number of reasons which are mostly beyond me. It seems to me that the actual crop numbers, the reality, is going to be relatively smooth and stable. How rapidly could the actual yield change? Maybe if there was some major flooding or other rare natural disaster, but on average I would think that yields don't make erratic moves like the USDA numbers. I continue to be very impressed by this technology.
Click here to download the original pdf file. Also, find the latest Lanworth related news here.
1 comment:
Estimate for June 30, 2009 USDA report
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. farmers planted fewer soybeans than the government forecast in March while topping the 2009 estimates for corn and spring wheat, according to a Lanworth Inc. analysis.
Soybeans will be sown on 75.75 million acres (30.7 million hectares) in 2009, down from the government’s March estimate of 76.02 million acres, Lanworth said today in a report to clients. Last year, farmers planted a record 75.718 million acres with the oilseed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the 2009 acreage to rise to 78.16 million, the average of 24 estimates.
Corn will be planted on 85.24 million acres, up 0.3 percent from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March forecast of 84.986 million and down from 85.982 million acres planted with the feed grain last year, Itasca, Illinois-based Lanworth said. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect corn acreage of 84.349 million.
“Farmers are not switching the corn acreage to soybeans” in the Midwest, said Nick Kouchoukos, a Lanworth vice president. “We are going to see a big corn number” when the USDA updates its forecasts, Kouchoukos said in a telephone interview.
About 13.6 million acres were probably planted with spring wheat, Lanworth said. That’s up 2.2 percent from the USDA’s March forecast of 13.304 million and down from 14.135 million acres last year as farmers in North Dakota exceeded their intentions earlier this year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast 13.009 million acres, on average, to be sown with wheat.
The USDA will update its crop-acreage estimates on June 30 at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, before the start of the trading day.
Soybeans May Rise
“The soybean acreage could rise above our forecast because of more acres” planted in the lower Mississippi River Valley, which the firm doesn’t analyze as closely, Kouchoukos said. “The area won’t be any larger than 76.5 million.”
Lanworth’s estimates are based on analysis of images made by satellites, computer models and field observations in 13 states containing 80 percent of the area planted with corn, soybeans and spring wheat. The remaining 20 percent of the U.S. crop-acreage estimates are based on the USDA’s March forecast, Lanworth said.
The acreage planted with the three crops is down 1.25 million acres from last year and up 280,000 acres from the USDA’s March report on farmers’ intentions, Lanworth said.
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $47.4 billion in 2008, with soybeans in second place at a record $27.4 billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth-largest, behind hay, with a record value of $16.6 billion last year.
Post a Comment