Saturday, January 31, 2009

Saturday Rock Blog: Smooth Operator & Welcome ChicagoStock


There is a smooth operator at work in the US treasury market. I've been paying much more attention to treasuries lately after ChicagoStock (Stewart) pointed out how bearish they have been acting lately. Recall that declining treasuries means higher yields which is generally a good thing for stocks since it means money is flowing out of risk averse government bonds. What I find really interesting is how much that market has begun to diverge from stocks lately. To me this suggests that perhaps stocks will catch a second wind before the fifth wave lower begins. The inverted head and shoulders (below) places a target around 3.2% on the 10 year note and there is a previous low at 3.25%. So I think there is definitely room for treasuries to fall further (sending yields and potentially stocks higher).
On a related note, please join me in welcoming ChicagoStock to the blog! If anyone needs a futures broker in Chicago, he's one of the best. Hopefully he will bring some of his technical expertise here to Stock Geometry. I think its definitely safe to expect more commodities charts here in the future. Again, welcome!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice... Looking good...