Saturday, January 03, 2009

Saturday Rock Blog: Think I'm In Love or Why I Think Oil Bottomed at $35 (~$28 on USO)



Energy traders must be falling in love with this chart again. I think it looks quite similar to the top (but upside down) with a failed break followed by a trend break the other way. Although, as extremely bullish as this chart looks I think we are all nervous about the thought of rising energy prices in a recession.


This post is a follow up to these posts and a sister to this post. And for those of you who get nervous charting a derivative, here is the continuous crude contract. Hat tip to ChicagoStock.

Disclosure: I am long DXO, USO calls and my gas tank is full. I also have calls on JASO, ENER and SPWRA.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Look at the RSI for the last 5 months. Every time the RSI goes to @ 50%, the stock goes down. Everytime the RSI went hit 30, it is bought.

This time the RSI hit 30, people bought USO except too fast and too soon to hit 50 in 5 days.

Watch your back, if you are trading USO to the up now.

pythagoruz said...

Good point Anon, I've added it to today's chart. I think the trend is changing so I'm not so worried about it going forward. But RSI = 50 is definitely an area of resistance.