Saturday Rock Blog: The Road Goes on Forever and the Party Never Ends

IWM, three year, weekly:

BIDU, one and a half year, weekly:

This party is going to end and the the come down off of the fed's drugs is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park on a sunny Spring morning. Calling the top within a weeks or even months is nearly impossible since this whole rally is just a fed fueled orgy of free money, the only people who know when the drugs will run out are Bernanke and his buddies. By the look of the charts though, it is hard to believe they can keep the party going much longer but they may be shooting for the mid term elections in November. Good luck! I still have a mix of long dated puts and calls on various individual stocks and ETFs.

Disclosure: I have no position in IWM or BIDU but I'd like to be short both after the top.

Saturday Rock Blog: Enjoy the Silence

Saturday Rock Blog: This Too Shall Pass

I will be on vacation, then traveling on business for the next month. As such, there will be very limited posting by me but maybe BetweenTheBars and/or ChicagoStock will fill the void. Good luck!

Hat tip to J. for the video, aka marley1up, aka weBjammin.

Speaking of Goldman, decent short entry point?

GS six month daily:

"Goldman Sachs is a rogue firm that ought to be shut down"

Saturday Rock Blog: Fantasy

IWM six month daily, blast off on no volume:

Our plan:

My plan: short these companies.

Some Bearish Charts

Nice CME retrace, six month daily:

Cross of death tomorrow on BBY, six month daily:

Not exactly a new trend on GS, six month daily:

Disclosure: No positions in these but today I sold some of my QQQQ calls and bought a few puts.

QQQQ: Bullish

Disclosure: I own March QQQQ calls but I have a few June puts.

Saturday Rock Blog: Scratch n' Sniff

Sp500 & VIX

ESH0

As the SP500 index started the year with a 1113.25 low on Jan 4th, the market rallied to 1150 by the second week of the year. As the market failed to hold above 1150, it sold off and broke the lows from the first day of trading during the 3rd week of January. These Jan4 lows have now become resistance creating a right shoulder in an larger "h/s" formation. This recent test of 1113 has also created a baby "h/s" formation within this right shoulder (1092 neckline 1113 head). Bulls will need to clear this downtrend line from the head to the right shoulder to attempt to break the head and violate this "h/s" pattern. Bears will look for a neckline break as confirmation of "h/s" targeting the low 900s.

$Vix

Island reversal created in the VIX on 01/11/10 occured as volatility closed higher after making a 22 month low. This reversal may end the 13 month downtrend in volatility however volatility will need to stay above the January lows in order for this reversal to be considered.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading futures and options is substantial and such investing is not suitable for all investors. An investor could lose more than the initial investment.

The Latest Jim Rogers

If you have a question for the wise Mr. Rogers then you can ask it here. The questions will be up for voting for a month or so before the top 10 actually go to the man himself. I plan on submitting a question myself but not until I think carefully about what I'd like to ask!

Here Comes Capitulation (Maybe)

The bulls finally seem to have their act together for the big squeeze. The small caps (IWM 6 month daily above) should easily make it back to the high at $65 from January and a break of that level should initiate some serious panic buying. I have been skeptical of the recent bearishness because my gut tells me that no major move, i.e. the bull market of the past year, ends without capitulation. While there are plenty of good reasons for the recent bearishness in the markets, the fact is, the charts don't show any obvious top pattern. As I've mentioned before, I'd like to see a few short crushing up days, maybe +5% or more on the indexes, with massive volume, say IWM trades more than 100M shares, at the top. Following such a move I'd look for a sharp reversal, this is the ideal time to short and this is what I'll be waiting for. That being said, this is a bullish looking chart to me on a daily time frame.

In the mean time I will remain long and short (hedged). Shorter in the long term, longer in the short term. =)

Saturday Rock Blog: Blowin' in the Wind

Simple ABC correction to the fib for the euro?

Here's a two year weekly of the euro ($EURUSD index $XEU):

On the other hand, the six month daily has major issues:

In a big slide following a 50 dma break, look for support at the rising 200 dma

FCX six month, daily:SWM six month, daily:

Saturday Rock Blog: Eyes Without a Face

Saturday Rock Blog: Wildfire

The S&P 500, 3 month, daily:XLF (Financial sector ETF), 6 month, daily:

Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem

LOL, watch background trader, just left of his head