Is this TIE gonna get shot down?

Shorting this stock might make you feel like Han Solo with a ticker like TIE. The titanium producer primarily sells to companies like Boeing who use the strong and lightweight metal for aerospace. If Boeing was building tie fighters they would certainly use titanium for the frame.
The stock has pulled back considerably from it's highs about a month ago when the stock split, but its still holding above it's 50 dma after a few bounces and a pierce last thursday. Compared with any other mining stock this is a considerable feat. Last week I had been buying puts looking for a big drop when it broke it's 50 dma for the first time. It broke it's 50 dma on thursday only to reverse intraday on high volume and close alomst breakeven. This was the stock's chance to reverse and head higher, however Friday much of this effort was negated when TIE closed almost at its daily low down 5%. It has now formed a slightly widening down channel on the daily and I think its ready to re-test the 30$ low monday or tuesday. The support there won't be as strong this time because last time it was there the 50 dma was just above 30. Also note there is alot of room to fall once the 50 dma is breached and 30 is broken (forming an ABC continuation pattern). Furthermore, on the weekly chart TIE actually did close just below it's 10 week average (~50 dma) for the first time since this parabolic move began over one year ago.
I think the fundamentals are on your side too because metal prices are declining after a couple year parabolic, speculation induced move (especially in Ti). Furthermore, Russia is producing more and more Titanium and recently signed a major 18B$ deal with Boeing to sell them Titanium. I'm not sure how much market this will take away from TIE, but it can't be good for them. In addition, TIE trades at more than twice it's peers valuations.

TIE's PE: 38
ATI's PE: 14

I also thought the recent activity of these Japanese Titanium companies was interesting, but I'm not sure how good of an indicator this actually is. They have been getting hit hard as of late and now lie well below their 50 and 200 dma's.

I'm sure you can find more reasons why TIE should fall, like BA's poor performance recently.
My only concern is that we have options expiration this friday and TIE has one of the highest implied volatilities out there. It is certainly a very good canidate for a max pain pin because of the large interest in selling TIE options. Max pain currently lies at about 30 but as I learned last month it can change rapidly as the option volumes spike towards the end of the week. By the look of the chart I would guess there will be more of a tendency towards 32.50 or 35 due to options but clearly this stock wants to go down and it may be impractical for the option writers to try and hold it up here.

The Market Observations blogger has nailed the TIE short in the past. He literally called the top and got me looking at TIE to begin with about a month ago. After some consolidation he is bearish on TIE once again.

This article on titanium process technology might be worth a look. Aparently a new company out of MIT has a way to cut the costs of titanium processing from about 40$ to 3$ per pound.