Sunday, June 04, 2006

A Perfectly Bearish Top in HOM

Take a look at this HOM chart and put yourself in the shoes of any holder. Fundamentals aside can you find any reason to buy/hold this stock. Some found one thursday when it bounced off it's 50 dma "like a rubber ball." But those buyers were punished friday with bearish engulfing on the highest volume ever. This comes after a perfect shooting star top formed just over a week ago to end the parabolic rise in HOM's price. Other indicators are pointing down, like the negative divergence in the RSI, CCI that just crossed zero and a double top in the MACD.
Caution is waranted, HOM is a hurricane play. Aside from ZENX (imo), HOM was (and may be in the future) the strongest hurricane play. Last year they reaped huge profits on rebuilding the South in the wake of Rita and Katrina. Another disasterous hurricane and HOM could pop. But it seems to me the stock has already made its move in anticipation of a strong hurricane season nearly tripling in price in six months. The stock's weakness friday is strongly correlated with a very negative report by the folks at Stock Lemon. Find it here. If any reader can find a more bearish chart I'd like to see it.

Disclosure: I bought June 10$ puts at the close Friday.

3 comments:

pythagoruz said...

Ok, this one could have performed much better. The stock was set to gap down at the open and fall hard but the company fought back. They released a counter argument to the stock lemon report in a pr minutes before the market opened and announced some insiders have been buying shares. So the stock gapped higher and hit it's daily high in the first few minutes of trading with a slow decline for the rest of the day. It actually closed almost at the low down 1% after being up as much as 6%. Ironically the PR by the company made the chart worse by adding another long black candlestick on high volume. It looks like there was more news of insider purchasing after the close so a short early tomorrow AM may be great timing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060605/20060605005728.html?.v=1

pythagoruz said...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060606/home_solutions_american_renaissance.html?.v=1

I sold my puts and bought June 5$ calls.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060607/home_solutions_mover.html?.v=2

I sold my calls and bought June $7.50 puts.

http://www.stocklemon.com/06_07_06.html

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to know abot the importance of The Double top and triple divergence in the indicator and double bottom on The CCI