Wednesday, November 07, 2007

American Banks

There is quite a bit going on with each of the banks below, some are certainly in more trouble than others. But tonight I just wanted to post these six month charts because I get the impression the market is ignoring what is happening to America's top lending institutions. Things are getting ugly, real fast, and if you think the US economy is going to just keep chugging along all hunky dory without these banks, well, you are nuts!

Washington Mutual:

Citigroup:

Capital One Financial:

Bank of America:

Wells Fargo:

I'm actually pretty scared here and thats coming from a short. The way things are unfolding, it seems like the US is heading towards a deep recession and I am scared for the welfare of my friends and family. I have actually been telling my friends and family to not hold ANY US stocks or mutual funds for the long term for some time now. I have only grown more concerned over the last six months even as stocks mindlessly went higher.

Disclosure: I own BAC puts

7 comments:

vincent raimonda said...

it is very scary out there. As you know i have some "medium term" stock holdings and ive sold at the money calls on nearly all of them the past few days.

SpearDriver said...

I don't think it's legal to use the syllables "bank" and "rupt" together, when speaking in terms of "banks".

But then, what do I know...

pythagoruz said...

You know quite a bit indigo, more than most. Fantastic call on the euro by the way!

Apparently the financial sector is officially in a bear market, but I guess I'm not surprised:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0bee054-8d6d-11dc-a398-0000779fd2ac.html

You know every day this just gets worse and worse, how amazing that people seem to think the stock market could or even should go higher when the foundation upon which business is conducted is literally falling apart..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap42s_XrP58Q&refer=home

Gridlock said...

If you guys are looking for another trade, I'd check out Gold Ishares (GLD). Take a look at this article from 2005:
http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex3.htm

Hamilton makes a good argument for oil being priced too high or gold being too low. At the time, oil was in the high $60s and Gold was just over $420. Now, with oil at $95 and Gold at $820, and the gold/oil ratio being at 8.6 (see second chart in link), it is still a good time to buy gold. Especially if you think oil is going to go higher. A side note,if the price of oil were to fall (someone mentioned a floor of $60 so let's use that) and gold were to trade at 15.8x oil which is the historical average, we'd still be looking at gold priced at $948.

SpearDriver said...

I regularly check the price of spot gold as it is a proxy for the US dollar.

The price of gold, and the value of the dollar are closely related, and gold is often used to store savings in the developing world.

And fwiw, there is no need to post three times in close succession. We each check the blog about once per day and we are spread across 10 timezones, or so. Your contributions should be approved within 12 hours at the latest.

Anonymous said...

You write very well.

pythagoruz said...

Thanks Benita