Thursday, November 15, 2007

The last three months...

These are the daily charts of the last three months in the major index etfs. A 3 month perspective is significant because that thats how long it has been since the last rally in the major indexes began. Exactly three months ago on this coming Monday, the stock market reversed from the Summer correction on credit crunch round one and generally made new 5 year highs. Note the two candlesticks on the far left off each chart, that was the reversal. I've also got the 50 day and 200 day moving averages on these for good measure. Aren't they beautiful?

QQQQ (Nasdaq 100), note the dramatic increase in volume as the market distributed (at new highs) then sold off hard over the last seven days:

DIA (Dow Jones Industrials), a very bad sign is that it recently sliced through it's 50 and 200 day moving averages on above average volume:

SPY (S&P 500), it doesn't look much different than the dow jones except that it is further below the 200 dma:

IWM (Russel 2000), the small caps look worse than any other index with the 50 day below the 200 day moving average, both of which are sloping down:

This looks like it to me, the only reason why I am skeptical of this starting an all out bear market is that its too obvious. I'm sure there are now tons of people short and everyone sees the carnage in these charts that I do. When everybody is short who is left to sell?

Disclosure: I own QQQQ and DIA puts.

If you are idling ignoring the recent developments in the US economic landscape, including the credit, housing and now the stock markets (by not being short or even worse, holding stocks or mutual funds)... then this is all I have to say to you:



If you are bothered by the quality, as I would be, then use this link. The evil record label won't let me embed the youtube version here.